TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

Mindmeld.

Especially ironic since this was his main point against the box when he brought up multiple nightkills

Wha...

My beef with round extends pass that, it was just something to add on to the pile of other things I found lacking and dodgy.

But with the knowledge I have now, there's to consider this:

Did roundbox know about multiple night kills due to one of their wolf pals having this ability (since there is an item that's unaccounted for in this list)? A scenario in my head can easily play one of the wolves brainstorming on Spruce specifically since if you just look up that specific character... they start with a member card which gave them access to the shop pregame.

http://fireemblem.wikia.com/wiki/Rennac

Specifically look at the starting item for them. Look familiar to the flip?

...

HOWEVER

I think I much believe the world that TWGma did it since he's the person that would naturally look for this with his Fire Emblem knowledge. If TWGma won that event during jeopardy like I think he did, then he no doubt used it thinking spruce was a wolf... I think. It's the only one I can think of anyways that doesn't involve a 3rd wolf kill that I don't believe in.

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

I think I'm gonna take a step back and try to reset since I spent all today tunneling charu and did almost nothing of note.

Not saying that I'm reneging on my scumread but I acknowledge

A) the possibility of a icarus situation where I'm being blinded to other possible worlds and risk accomplishing nothing and

B) That charu can't be resolved concretely today without catching at least another wolf. And it was probably too soon to aim that high considering the general reaction. I got.

So I make a tactical withdrawal and I will try to stay receptive to new information.

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

I will say that in general none of the vocal people today feel like wolves.

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

I mean...

Tonewise, if I largely ignore wider implications I think from towniest to scummiest it goes:

1. Charu / yoshl
2. Xiz / roundbox
3. cel
4. Jessica
5. Blind/xel

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

So how do I parse this.

Is it impossible to take a good stab from tone alone? Do I really need the entire body of work of a player to make a decent judgement? This game will probably decide that for me once and for all and shape my meta in future games.

[Celirra]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

I'll get bad ranking lists for 600, sunfan

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

Maybe were at the equalibirium point where wolf fatigue sets in and towniness directly correlates to post volume with at least 2 of the remaining 3 wolves

[Daikyi]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

I will say that in general none of the vocal people today feel like wolves.

i mean, it's definitely beneficial for wolves to sit back, assuming there's just town yelling in thread.

[Celirra]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

Maybe were at the equalibirium point where wolf fatigue sets in and towniness directly correlates to post volume with at least 2 of the remaining 3 wolves

so who are these 2 that you're implicating here? I don't think I've noticed any distinct posting quantity differences for anyone in the game relative to others in the game

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

Maybe were at the equalibirium point where wolf fatigue sets in and towniness directly correlates to post volume with at least 2 of the remaining 3 wolves

In other words, the chances of a majority of the wolves being active posters today that have natural interactions with each other are very unlikely.

If I had to bet money, I'd subscribe to the 2 inactive 1 "master" wolf paradigm. So we should be looking at inactive today for the lynch. If people share this train of thought that is.

[Daikyi]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

harkening back tot he twg champs game where manti and wolves just sat back as town imploded

given the track record of like 3/4 lynches onto wolves, i don't know whether to be surprised or what right now.

however, i don't think that everyone who's active is necessarily town, because i can look at all the players who have been actively engaging in discussion and say like "yeah that's par for the course"

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

so who are these 2 that you're implicating here? I don't think I've noticed any distinct posting quantity differences for anyone in the game relative to others in the game

I would say blind, jess, xel with you being an edge case.

Those would be the 4 least vocal posters myself excluded

[blindreper1179]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

How am i all of a sudden wolfy to you guys? I was town read by almost everyone last day phase. I've been trying to get rid of anti town behavior (ffa and round) i wasnt tunneled like you guys said i was. I've been saying round and xiz as well pretty much most of the time too. Sure, haku and ffa were misses, but town isn't always right.

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

I'll get bad ranking lists for 600, sunfan

In the spreadsheet that Xiz made in 2016, this person has 0 games recorded in TWG.

[Daikyi]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

In other words, the chances of a majority of the wolves being active posters today that have natural interactions with each other are very unlikely.

If I had to bet money, I'd subscribe to the 2 inactive 1 "master" wolf paradigm. So we should be looking at inactive today for the lynch. If people share this train of thought that is.

also please consider our 3 wolf lynches have been: manti (low post volume), tokzic (not even there pretty much), and precarious (very very UTR)

if you're suggesting that there's 2 inactive, 1 master right now, that's saying the entire wolf team is 5 inactives, and one wolf actually playing