TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

[Daikyi]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

round/box has at max 1 in it

xel/blind is 1/2, i can't imagine a gamestate where it's 0 i think.

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

I don't think jessie is ever a wolf
I think cel is pretty clear too.
So is charu but less so.
Yoshl is only clear on the strength of his play and not mechanically in any way.

So when you widen the scope I guess I mean you entertain a yoshl wolf world

[Celirra]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

I don't think jessie is ever a wolf
I think cel is pretty clear too.
So is charu but less so.
Yoshl is only clear on the strength of his play and not mechanically in any way.

So when you widen the scope I guess I mean you entertain a yoshl wolf world

hey freezin not to scare you but if you add roundbox to that list and swap me with you because you're almost as cute as me anyways, you get the post i made near the start of the phase

i know, spooky eh

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

I don't think this is likely but it doesn't hurt to keep in mind

The game could be as easy as xel/blind/(picked between round box and xiz)

Which also fits the paradigm I described earlier of 2 inactive 1 master wolf

[Xiz]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

im starting to see blind/xel as 2 wolves, i dont know. Xel way more then blind.

alos, who did daiky ITA?

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

hey freezin not to scare you but if you add roundbox to that list and swap me with you because you're almost as cute as me anyways, you get the post i made near the start of the phase

i know, spooky eh

Oh

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

im starting to see blind/xel as 2 wolves, i dont know. Xel way more then blind.

alos, who did daiky ITA?

Da fuq is this

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

round/box has at max 1 in it

lol

[Xiz]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

Da fuq is this

what now

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

I think the right play here is kill blind

[Daikyi]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

round/box has at max 1 in it

xel/blind is 1/2, i can't imagine a gamestate where it's 0 i think.

round/blind LMFAO

[FreezinIce]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

what now

Iono I guess I want some progression and not a copypasta of my conclusion I just reached

[Celirra]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

doo doo dooooooooooooooooo
anyone else have the feeling this is too easy

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

working on the last 3, just wanted to get this out early so people could read what I had

ROUNDBOX -

roundbox ISO

Overall, play is anti-town in effect, but that has little to do with actual alignment. I'm not a huge fan of this sort of play. It's possible to make jokes and avoid being dead serious (like me!) without having to sacrifice any real play. The thing is, this style of play isn't that unusual, and I don't think it's indicative on its own, despite not being useful. The concerning element for me is that roundbox was defensive at all when facing weak probes, since I'd expect a town-player of this style to be indifferent to throwaway attacks. Null read, slightest scum tinge.

scumleaning me, pretty much for the same reason everyone else is
boo

BLIND -

blindreper1179

Overall, blind has been very incisive and hasn't been shy at all about present their ideas. That's a good sign to me, since a willingness to mix it up suggests a player more interested in exploring the game state than hiding behind generalities. Solid town.

solid town for blind
quotes - consistent tone, tonally good, none of them have any obvious problems

XIZ -

More reads.

Xiz: Weird game. Was almost entirely casual/conversational for a large portion of the day, with an brief interest in the event game (his perspective was a little weird there, a lot of speculation about things the host could do if everyone coordinated). After a lot of space on poker, real life events, and so on, switched to a clear game focus, providing reads (with reasoning) on a number of players, although it was basically all town reads. Seems to be suspicious of blind, and was pushing for clarification on a read. Seems to be fully invested in the game now. Like that he called out Who Cares for suggesting a third party. MML vote is kind of weird right now, since it's parked without reasoning provided. Null.

I can see what people mean by "this sort of play can be done as any alignment" when they read my older games where I posted almost exclusively like this. Not sure what to make of him calling Xiz null at this time. I need to look at how he read currently confirmed characters to see what kind of agenda he constructed. Consider this unresolved.

this was in the middle of this post:

More reads.

ShadoWolfe: Didn't do anything of interest until #866, but that was a pretty good post. It was self-reflective enough to consider the dangers of town-reading mind-melds, and although a lot of it was based on feel, it felt sufficiently fleshed out. I like that Shado actually does a fair number of more than one sentence posts, because that means there's enough going on that I can kind of get a sense of what he's really trying to say, and evaluate it. I like his tone toward EoD interactions—what he wants to happen and why even outside of actual votes. Town read.

LightManticoreX2: Pretty much continuous shitposting. Occasional segues back to the game, but reluctant to contribute actual ideas. #1234 is troublesome; it seems to assume their own survival, and a willingness to wagon. Part of that is just the adopted tone, but then #1329 is a sort of subtle OMGUS, attacking anyone suggesting a Light vote for not pushing the case harder. There's some validity to that, but it suggests that Light is actually following the game (or at least their own mentions), which raises the question of why they're not actually scumhunting or analyzing. However, this is subverted in the next post, calling out (and voting) MML for making the same basic point, under the logic that such behavior fits their usual opening day meta. At this point, Light's game changes completely, as it switches to repeatedly hammering MML on this one point. This is where meta might actually be useful; is there X2 precedent for suddenly tunneling one person on flimsy (but possibly intuitive) grounds? Because that kind of tunneling feels more like an excuse to construct a vote (and avoid considering anything else), I lean slight scum here.

Hakulyte: Focused onto the thread itself pretty quickly; occasional conversation posts, but most material is game-sided. Made a sort of strained case for sprucegrit as wolf, based on the information dump/reveal. I don't really agree with that logic—overall it's kind of alignment neutral—but I can't tell if it's a “fake” case or just an intuitive leap. Don't really like #693; any allowable discussion is useful, even if the effect is muted in a 24-player first day. The AMA stuff feels pretty alignment neutral; since the schedule limitations are new to Haku, the “talk to me” stuff feels like an awkward but genuine way to deal with the uncomfortable parts of being absent. I could see Haku doing/saying that whether town or wolf. Did propose a full wolf team in #1282. Seems very committed to that read, given the no W/T logic in #1291. That seems like kind of an awkward type of thinking, almost solving to a preordained conclusion, but it feels like something town Haku would actually try. A lot of interaction and referencing past games, which is pretty much alignment neutral for Haku. Null read. I'd say town if pressed, but I wouldn't feel great about it.

Like, if you look at these quotes, he's mostly pressed to scumread people he knows are town (well, believes in Manti's case). It looks like the common thread between the towny stuff is tone (Shado and blind).
Since he's pretty defensive of teammates, blind COULD be a passage into something. That'd be a surprise to me since I'd say blind is playing pretty dang well if he's wolfing here

JESSIE -

I'm down for shooting Jessie, because I think it resolves Charu's alignment too.

Jessie

HARD CLEAR IMO

FREEZIN -

dude he was hardvoting him in the fg thing do you seriously think this soft clear isn't a soft clear?

:*(

But seriously, I'm regretting wasting time on my own mega-post. I kind of want to lynch Jessie, since I think it clarifies Charu (and potentially the rest of the Manti wagon).

not sure if anyone saw this, but hey lol
(someone probably saw this)

Regardless of what it means for me personally, I buy FG's claim. Even absent the corroboration, it's too coherent and detailed to be made up. That means either FFA or Freezin is the JOAT.

As far as the ITA goes, I favor shooting FFA first. He VT-claimed early, which almost certainly means he's either a wolf, or actually VT. So in the worst case scenario, we lose a vanilla player, and in the best case hit the wolf.

Given the circumstances, I strongly favor an aggressive ITA. Nothing good can come of drawing this situation out.

Having said that, I would favor a Freezin lynch over FFA in a vacuum, although that's not a decision anyone will need to make unless I'm the only person killed in the ITA. I don't suppose even my claim will prevent that now.

take this into consideration, the last part at least where he says he would lynch freezin before FFA. he doesn't really care which one dies first, so that pushes freezin further up the towny list more than he already is.

CHARU -

Jessie. Late wagon, weird buddying with Charu (Manti wagon) and FG (wagon alternative).

here's this

TWGma, Jessie

But the people that voted you super last minute have flipped already--and they were town anyway. I couldn't find FFA's vote, so I went back, and it turns out he was the first vote on you--made before the chaos of the absolute last minute. Then it was Freezin' (blue claim), then Haku (since flipped town), and lastly DBP (known town even at the time).

Because of the shifting late wagons (and the flips on Manti and WC), I expect that either you or FFA is scum.

not related to charu but more scumreading of town. very defensive of teammates it seems with the guise of mechanical play

You're really, really defensive of Jessie.

and

These stuck out to me because Jessie didn't have a ton of interactions, so the attention from Charu seemed like a lot.

.
Then during the ITA:

(and in response to Freezin taking a purple shot at Jessie)

towerpost on charu, hmmmmMMM

See what I just posted, been gathering stuff a while. But basically Charu's been really oddly solicitous of someone who's play has been infrequent and newish. Jessie was the last person to hop on the Manti wagon (thus pushing it over the edge), and Charu was also on it, and got there sort of awkwardly.

I feel like if one is scum, so is the other.

lynch (clap) series

My world building links FG, Charu, and Jessie; or it's you.

you could rule of 4 this EXCLUSIVELY for charu but it seems a bit much
might be something to consider for later. this combined with how freezin/ffa was put ahead of resolving Jessie/Charu might actually make Charu a bus candidate since he's pushing the lynch further down the line for a rewarding, but long bus?

not willing to gamble on this today. charu probably off my table.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

I just submitted a QUALITY POST so you can all shut the fuck up