Demand outstripping supply for oil.

[Maid]

I have read that by 2010 we might reach peak oil supply and after that face a gradual decline, seeing how population and demand keeps growing for oil. Wont this have rather catastrophic effects? Since we use oil practically in everything.

If that is true, prolonged Iraq occupation makes more sense in the long run, I guess.

I also have read about alternatives, and none of them are feasible on industrial scale.

[Go_Oilers_Go]

Re: Demand outstripping supply for oil.

Meh. Time to pay for our mistakes. ^_^

EDIT: I said that because I'm too bored to write a long explanation. And I actually agree with the thread creator. Don't mind me.

[argo15]

Re: Demand outstripping supply for oil.

hopefully we can evolve beyond oil by then.

[omgitznpv]

Re: Demand outstripping supply for oil.

Sound -> energy plocks.

[devonin]

Re: Demand outstripping supply for oil.

As soon as it becomes more profitable to move on to other fuel sources, companies will move on to other fuel sources.

You're crazy if you think that all of the companies dealing in oil-based fuels haven't already done a great deal of ground work in preparing to move to other fuels. They have too much invested in infrastructure.

[arsonistsgetallthegirls]

Re: Demand outstripping supply for oil.

If i had to guess, automobile companies are doing a lot of work on HHO powered cars.
Several already exist, and have been proven to be easy to mass produce, saying the fuel is water. The only problem is the generous helping of electricity required to turn H2O into HHO.

[GuidoHunter]

Re: Demand outstripping supply for oil.

What exactly does "peak oil supply" mean? Is it the most we're allowed to produce, or the most we can produce? Because there's a LOT of oil both in the north and in the Gulf of Mexico (as well as many unfound or untapped fields elsewhere around the world) that we're just ignoring.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Maid]

Re: Demand outstripping supply for oil.

What exactly does "peak oil supply" mean? Is it the most we're allowed to produce, or the most we can produce? Because there's a LOT of oil both in the north and in the Gulf of Mexico (as well as many unfound or untapped fields elsewhere around the world) that we're just ignoring.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

Our demand keeps growing but Supply isn't growing enough compared to demand, some countries over report their oil and the shale in the north is 1.5 oil to 1 effort to get it, compared to 30 to 1 for drilling. The fact that we started drilling from the Ocean, doesn't it throw red flags, drilling from the ocean is a lot tougher than doing it on land, if the so called oil sites are so abundant, why are they drilling the ocean.

[devonin]

Re: Demand outstripping supply for oil.

The important thing to realise here is that if the effort :: oil ratio were so high as to be -unprofitable- then it would't be happening. A transition from oil to other fuel sources will only happen when it becomes profitable to do so. Don't think however, that such a change will only occur when the oil is gone. As a good friend of mine said on the subject "The stone age didn't end because they ran out of stones"

The transition from coal didn't come from there being no coal, it came from it being more profitable to change. Ditto most every major consumptive change in humans. As soon as more money is to be made by switching, everyone switches. We've already established pretty well that alternate fuel sources are already being worked on by major car companies, and they are one of the largest consumers of oil in both manufacturing and in maintaining their products in working order.

The reason they don't have these alternate sources mass produced and for sale isn't because they can't, its because there is still more money to be made from oil and the ICE right now, but they are already manufacturing some top-end cars with alternate fuel sources, so the process is clearly far enough along to run with.

[Tokzic]

Re: Demand outstripping supply for oil.

The oil situation isn't as bad as gas companies are making it out to be. The main issue when we run out of oil won't be that we're running out of fuel, because we have plenty of alternatives for that - they just are being screwed at every given opportunity by gas companies. What is going to be an issue is finding a replacement for plastic. Looking around in any room ever gives you an idea why.

These "facts" that we're going to run out of oil in single-digit years are nonsense propaganda spread - again - by gas companies. When they say "oh no new science says that we're going to run out of gas really soon" people don't complain as much when they jack the prices. If you listened to what they said in the '80s, there was absolutely no way that our oil supplies would hold out until 2000. Actual science says we'll run out of gas closer to 2040, but this is flawed too because it's too basic a calculation. We'll never actually run out of oil - it'll just steadily approach the point where it can't come close to the demand and it becomes economically stupid to pursue in business. Consider what would happen if out of nowhere gas became $3.00 a litre (around $12 a gallon) - you'd probably be slightly disinclined to buy gas, wouldn't you? Car companies will forecast when gas becomes unprofitable, and transition into vehicles that aren't dependant on gas appropriately.

[lord_carbo]

Re: Demand outstripping supply for oil.

Prices will just rise so long as there isn't a price ceiling set by the government. Demand or supply doesn't hit some magical wall Demand meets supply at an equilibrium. Duh. That "supply peak" is just the sign of a shortage. Raise prices. Bam. Less people are going to buy oil. People will carpool, go on buses (which will also rise in demand, so consequentially, price and quantity will rise), and make investments in other mutual funds like that.

THEN people will be like "**** this ****" and go onto new sources of energy. Oil and other sources of energy are substitute goods. While general demand for energy is inelastic, oil can become even more responsive when there are more pragmatic approaches to energy such as solar power and wind power. People will convert faster than a Jonathan Edwards congregation. By theory, in response to the transition, oil prices will go down, and in response to that, people will still be able to afford oil just as either a superior or inferior good, etc. ad infinitum. It won't keep increasing. Once we have a dominant substitute good, gas prices won't be super high. Gas prices are attributed to demand, too.

Oil and energy companies realize that oil is going to eventually run out, and in order to stay on top of their broad industry, they and independent researchers are investing in new sources of energy. Why would they move on to something like hotels or real estate? If oil goes out we'll need a new medium of energy because energy demand is inelastic, and they're the ones with the most experience in energy. Countries who also get a lot of money from oil have been working on things to promote tourism, big spenders, and general prosperity, a good example being Dubai. Anyone who thinks that they haven't been or at least aren't going to is either assuming that the companies are stupid, or (more likely) doesn't know that much.

Economics, guys. This is why the boycotts people are trying to do to lower gas prices aren't working. Not buying gas on May 15th doesn't lower energy demand. Not buying gas from the two biggest suppliers doesn't lower energy demand.

Your worries should just be apprehension. The only concern is how efficient the alternative energy source that comes out on top will be. Gas prices won't rise beyond anything feasible, and there won't be any problems so long as government doesn't intervene (the oil crises of the 70's were arguably due to international disputes).

Additionally I don't think oil companies are rapacious corporations just out to **** with us, Tokzic. Are you just assuming that because they're raising prices really high? Oil companies hold both an oligopoly to commuters and an oligopsony to oil refineries and oil reserves. They're just trying to maximize profit. And it's working. Demand rises during the holiday season, which is why energy becomes more expensive then. Basic, basic economics. However, so much goes into energy production of all kinds, especially all of the energy you don't get at the pump. The public's perspective is a bit skewed on that, although it's Utopian to assume almost anyone will because, as I said, so much goes into it. That fact is about as much as one could ordinarily comprehend.

[Reach]

Re: Demand outstripping supply for oil.

Most of the problem arises from the fact that just about every alternate source of energy (right now) takes oil to make and to run >__> and so do just about all of our household products. There are tons of alternatives for energy, but you're not exactly in a good position if you can't produce them. Or much of anything for that matter.

Though I know of a few other ways to make plastics and nylons, ect, that don't involve oil, I have no idea if any of them are feasible on large scale. I can't currently think of any logical way around this problem other than...problems arising left right and center >_> For example, what exactly do you think you're going to make those car engines with that burn water as a fuel? Fairy dust? What about those wind turbines? Your computer? You can expand this list indefinitely. I'd like to know if there are any serious solutions to this, other than cutting consumption exponentially and then just riding it out as long as possible (which will still likely work. Eventually maybe we can raid other planets 8) ).

[Tokzic]

Re: Demand outstripping supply for oil.

Additionally I don't think oil companies are rapacious corporations just out to **** with us, Tokzic.

...

They're just trying to maximize profit.

That's what I said.

People are less inclined to boycott and fight higher than necessary prices when they read or hear nonsense like "we're going to be out of oil by 2010". Where do you suppose these facts come from? Not scientists.

Also, I saw the intro to a program the other day about gas companies (which didn't hold my interest long enough to make me watch it, but it's relevant here anyway) - some car corporation, as a promotion and environmental stunt, produced fifteen electric cars and the equipment necessary to charge them. They held an auction to see who would get them.

A gas company bought them all and had them destroyed.

They aren't screwing with us or fighting against the environment - I never said anything like that. They're just maximizing profit, and don't have the best set of ethics on them.

[tsugomaru]

Re: Demand outstripping supply for oil.

There are tons of alternatives for energy, but you're not exactly in a good position if you can't produce them. Or much of anything for that matter.

You can make things more energy efficient. There's a thing called building retrofitting which will help save energy. And that's not just it, there are many ways to reduce the amount of energy to use, however, a lot of it is expensive. In fact, there are also a lot of ways to use alternative energy sources. Solar panels covering the size of New Mexico can generate enough electric power to fuel the world (or so they say), but it costs a lot of money.

The main issue seems to be money, no one is willing to invest the money it takes to use an alternative energy source and to retrofit for it. Instead, they are choosing the cheap way out; to continue buying gas made from fossil fuels and oils.

~Tsugomaru

[lord_carbo]

Re: Demand outstripping supply for oil.

People are less inclined to boycott and fight higher than necessary prices when they read or hear nonsense like "we're going to be out of oil by 2010". Where do you suppose these facts come from? Not scientists.

What I meant to say is that I don't believe I've ever heard that said, and I thikn you're just assuming they said that because they're raising prices.

Trust me, people are boycotting gas companies, it's just that their attempts are really stupid. May 15th, the summer boycott of the two biggest producers, etc. Both of those would do nothing (and surprise, they didn't!) according to economics.

Also, I saw the intro to a program the other day about gas companies (which didn't hold my interest long enough to make me watch it, but it's relevant here anyway) - some car corporation, as a promotion and environmental stunt, produced fifteen electric cars and the equipment necessary to charge them. They held an auction to see who would get them.

A gas company bought them all and had them destroyed.

Well the car corporation is completely stupid. If people want electric cars because gas prices or some **** like that, and if the car was easy enough to produce, then they should produce them and get profit. If not, then it's no threat to the gas companies in the first place. If the company were to mass produce them assuming it's feasible, it would be devastating. Although not quite predatory pricing, the principle would be the same.