Time for a moment with "How Science Fails"!
Once upon a time, there was an economist. He said to himself one day "I like football. I think I'll become a football expert." And over the years he gained in expertise about football strategy.
One day the NFL came to him. They said "there are too many punts in a game. Punts are boring. We'll pay you in a consulting gig to help us fix this problem." Because he likes money, the economist said "Sure thing."
Many hours later (he was paid by the hour) he deduced that lots of teams punted on the 4th down. Nobody punted on the third, though. He sent this data and a suggestion to the NFL. Soon afterward, the NFL restricted the number of downs from 4 to 3. From then on, all the teams kicked on the fourth down.
How does this little parable apply? Ages. Of course more 16 year olds get in wrecks now. That's the age limit. If you raise it to 18, it will be 18 year olds that get in wrecks. But they get more time to train! That doesn't mean they will. In fact, having more time to train gives them less of an incentive to train at all. Why? Because people like free time instead of working time.
Q
Once upon a time, there was an economist. He said to himself one day "I like football. I think I'll become a football expert." And over the years he gained in expertise about football strategy.
One day the NFL came to him. They said "there are too many punts in a game. Punts are boring. We'll pay you in a consulting gig to help us fix this problem." Because he likes money, the economist said "Sure thing."
Many hours later (he was paid by the hour) he deduced that lots of teams punted on the 4th down. Nobody punted on the third, though. He sent this data and a suggestion to the NFL. Soon afterward, the NFL restricted the number of downs from 4 to 3. From then on, all the teams kicked on the fourth down.
How does this little parable apply? Ages. Of course more 16 year olds get in wrecks now. That's the age limit. If you raise it to 18, it will be 18 year olds that get in wrecks. But they get more time to train! That doesn't mean they will. In fact, having more time to train gives them less of an incentive to train at all. Why? Because people like free time instead of working time.
Q

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