Confuzzled....

[25thhour]

My mom told me about some dude who won the lottery three times by picking the numbers that were drawn the least. (I assume he made a tally of all the numbers that were drawn to find this out)

Would this actually work or is it totally random?

[psychoangel691]

Re: Confuzzled....

The lottery is random there's no way to really help your odds. I had actually just read an article on this a few days ago but I can't seem to find it again (it was featured on yahoo) But basically they debunked all the lottery myths like buying in larger cities vs going where there's less people, etc. But really there's no way to increase your odds whether you play the most picked or least picked numbers it's still completely random.

[25thhour]

Re: Confuzzled....

I find it weird because I have set up a list and so far I've gone back to End of June.

1 -xxxxossaJ
2 -xxxxoooJ
3 -xxxosaaJJ
4 -xxsaJ
5 -xxxxxxsssaa
6 -xxossaJ
7 -xxxossaaa
8 -xxxxxxoaaJJ
9 -xsaaJ
10-xxxxooaaa
11-xxxxxsssss
12-xxxxxxaaJ
13-xxxoossssaJJ
14-xosaJJ
15-xxooosaaJ
16-xxxooaaJ
17-xxxossJJ
18-osaJ
19-xxxsssJ
20-xxoosaaJ
21-xosa
22-xoaaa
23-xxxxxoa
24-xxJ
25-xxaa
26-xxssaaaaJJJ
27-xxxosaJ
28-xxxoaJ
29-xxxxooosJJJJ
30-xsssaJJ
31-xxssaJJ
32-xsJ
33-xxxxos
34-osJJJ
35-xxxxoosaJ
36-xxosaaJJJ
37-xxooaJJ
38-xxxxoJJ
39-xxxxs
40-xxxossaJJ
41-xxssaa
42-xosaJ
43-xxoJJ
44-xxosaJ
45-xxxxssssa
46-xxooss
47-xxxoaaJJ
48-ssJJ
49-xxxoosJJ


Some numbers have been picked like 15 times while others have been picked like 4 or less times.

[Nyokou]

Re: Confuzzled....

Saw this on the news a while ago.

He has won the lottery 7 times.

http://www.wesh.com/r/25443139/detail.html

[PrawnSkunk]

Re: Confuzzled....

oh.
























cool story bro.

[FuzenAkuma]

Re: Confuzzled....

Look up the Gambler's Fallacy and the Law of Large Numbers and you'll see why this won't work and why "some numbers have been picked like 15 times while others have been picked like 4 or less times."

[welsh_girl]

Re: Confuzzled....

I wouldn't mind winning it just once.

[vro]

Re: Confuzzled....

My uncle has played the lottery every week, religiously, for over 15 years, and has never won.

[x_Dragun_x]

Re: Confuzzled....

^ spam -.- Anyways, love you, just because you used the word, confuzzled <3

[Rubin0]

Re: Confuzzled....

I play lottery and I'm always so surprised when I don't win.

[Reach]

Re: Confuzzled....

The people that do the math for lotteries know what they're doing, which is why lotteries make so much money. So yes, it's entirely random. These guys know exactly what the probability of winning is, which is why it's so -EV (expected value) to buy a ticket (unless the jackpot has built up to a sufficiently massive number).

The numbers are generated by random number generators, and while they are truly pseudo-random number generators at heart, they're impossible to distinguish from truly random generators. RNGs are also used in things like slot machines.

The numbers are all equally likely to be picked. You'll see patterns in small samples, but across large samples there are no patterns. I did a project two years ago for a stats class where I had to accumulate all of the data for a particular Canadian lottery. I had years worth of winning numbers and thousands of samples, so yes, I can confirm it's entirely random.

Now, if the numbers are arranged in order from smallest to largest, which they often are, the numbers in those specific positions are *not* entirely random, but this has to do with a probabilistic ordering effect and nothing to do with the randomness of the generator (e.g. the number in the first position is more likely to be 1 than any other number; however, picking 1 as your first number won't increase your odds of winning. If you can figure that one out, you've got a good grasp of statistics and probability).



As for the man in question, he's just absurdly fortunate and probably doesn't understand probability.

[vro]

Re: Confuzzled....

^ spam -.- Anyways, love you, just because you used the word, confuzzled <3

Not trying to start something, but how on earth was that spam? The thread was about a guy who's won the lottery 7 times, and I commented with how my uncle has played for so long, and has never won, which adds to the fact of how amazing winning 7 times in such a short time period is.

[Reach]

Re: Confuzzled....

Not trying to start something, but how on earth was that spam? The thread was about a guy who's won the lottery 7 times, and I commented with how my uncle has played for so long, and has never won, which adds to the fact of how amazing winning 7 times in such a short time period is.

In Canada, the probability of winning lotto max is 1/85,900,584 per number drawn.

You're more likely to die on the way to cashing your ticket than you are to win in the first place.


The fact is, even if your uncle played every week for the rest of his life, the odds of him never winning are still probably stacked 100 to 1.

If someone bought 50 lotto max numbers a week for 5000 years, the probability of them winning once is about 15%. Terrible odds, and you would have wasted some 26 million dollars.


Anyway, this guy that won 7 times won smaller lotteries where the probability is higher. Still, the chances of that happening 7 times is probably still a billion to one, but either way, that's why you don't see many people like him.

He simply doesn't understand random number generation and suffers from conformational bias. That is, because his particular technique worked for him, he believes there's really something to it when it fact it worked because of dumb luck. It's an example of an illusory correlation and attempting it yourself will not increase the chances of winning the lottery.

[vro]

Re: Confuzzled....

^^^ Plus, my uncle plays Texas Mega Millions lottery, which has way more ridiculous odds.

[25thhour]

Re: Confuzzled....

Thanks, I thought it was completely random but you never know.