Re: What are the Odds?
Beautiful, beautiful car.
Beautiful, beautiful car.
-
-
Re: What are the Odds?
Devonin: Even past that, it just bothers me when people use some kind of modified frequency to represent an overall chance or probability statistic. "Chance" is only really applicable when we have no real control over the underlying variables. Most of that **** in the video is not based on chance, but rather plenty of things we can control -- including whether or not we want to own that spiffy car :PComment
-
Re: What are the Odds?
The chances of you using that car more than once a month cause you are to afraid it get scratch or stolen
1 : 2.000.000.000
P.S the car look awesome
AAA:531
Best AAAs: Be Princess | Happy Happy Shining Star!! | XP Sounds Attempt | BB Euro | Gacha Gacha Cute Figu atto Mate | It's Only Natural | Shihen | Epic
Best non-AAAs: Summer Time Perfume (6-0-0-0), The Divine Suicide of K (5-0-0-0), Strangeprogram (4-0-0-0), Going On Spring Wind (3-0-0-1) Lawn Wake I (2-0-0-2), Rottel-da-station (0-0-0-1)
# of BF: 42
-------
Comment
-
Re: What are the Odds?
Why make a video just to let us know we'll never own one. I got one for ya, what are the chance i give a damn about it? 1:999,999,999, I win.Comment
-
Re: What are the Odds?
lolOriginally posted by izzy on youtube
ps, your car sucks.
here's mine.
wanna race?
Comment
-
Re: What are the Odds?
15 models divided by 6 billion people = 1:4,000,000,000 to actually own one.
"Statistically"Comment
-
Re: What are the Odds?
Glad you guys liked it; sorry if I didn't "present" it well. I just thought it was a cool video. It isn't often you see commercials like that; even if the statistics of chance are not correct.
Comment
-
Re: What are the Odds?
I think you mean 400 mill.
Originally posted by ilikexdComment
-
Re: What are the Odds?
It's actually closer to 7 billion now (6.8 or something), which is why their statistic seemed a bit strange to me, as it implies 10 cars/7 billion people = 1 car per 700 million = 1:700 "chance" of owning that car. I was under the assumption they were making 15 cars, but whatever.
As for their Mt. Everest stat, I'm assuming that 3500 or so have made it, because it seems like they just did 3500/7 billion = 1 in 2 million (which is absolutely retarded if they did it this way). The 1/20 death statistic is probably 175/3500 = 1:20 (175 people dead to date on Everest after having made it to the summit). Too lazy to check these numbers to see if they're anywhere NEAR the real frequencies, but I bet you they're not too far off, as it's probably how they went about calculating things.Last edited by MrRubix; 09-23-2009, 07:07 AM.Comment
-
Re: What are the Odds?
God...Rubix = smartComment
-
Re: What are the Odds?
Decided to check Wiki:
"By the end of the 2008 climbing season, there had been 4,102 ascents to the summit by about 2,700 individuals"
And from a few sites found via Google, it would seem as if there have been a total of 200 deaths or so.
From Extreme Science, they say about 6,000 people have even attempted to TRY Mt. Everest.
From that alone, 2,700/6,000 = 45% of the people who attempt Everest actually make it. This might seem fairly high, but consider the fact that you probably wouldn't even try to climb Everest in the first place unless you felt you had a reasonable shot (your life is on the line, after all), considering that you'd have to know what you were doing/be in proper physical shape/etc, so it's probably a somewhat self-selective pool.
200/2700 = 7.5% of those people died (the real number is probably a lot lower than this, because I would assume 200 includes TOTAL deaths and I assume there are more deaths on the way up than on the way down, so the real statistic should probably be < 3.75%-4% or so, which is actually not too far off from the 1/20 -> 5% statistic the commercial gave.
tldr: A 1 in 2 million frequency quote is not a very good way to describe the success rate of reaching the top of Everest.
EDIT: One thing I do find funny is that despite the fact they decided to basically use the world's population as the denominator in many of their calculations (which is retarded because a success rate should be number of successes/(number of successes + number of failures)), they decided to crunch down the denominator for the death statistic. I guess they decided that the chances of dying on the back from Mt. Everest is 200/7 billion = 1:35 million were obviously too low but didn't bother to consider this logic for any other of their stats, lmao.Last edited by MrRubix; 09-23-2009, 07:36 AM.Comment
-
Re: What are the Odds?
Anyways **** the math SEXY CAR SEXY CAR I want to make love to it. I want to bang it. I want to **** it. I want to have little Lamborghini-Rubik's Cube babies.Comment
-
Comment
Comment