Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

[25thhour]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Holy crap FFR's biggest quote? :P

Lol my friend is gonna get raped in Nova Scotia or whatever.

[scottish]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Alright, much needed update. I will start this off with a fairly simple statement...
IF YOU LIVE ON THE CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS COAST, GET THE **** OUT.
Ok, now that that's done with, let's move onto Ike again.
Ike is currently around 360 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas, near where it's projected to make landfall. Since my last update, a lot, yet very little, if that makes sense, has happened. In terms of strength, Ike isn't really impressive.

• Category Two storm
• Sustained Winds around 100mph
• Gusts up to 120mph/130mph
• Pressure is at 955mb

Ever since Ike has re-emerged over open waters, he has gone under something completely obtuse. Instead of strengthening by wrapping winds around the lowest center of pressure (the eye), Ike has expanded his winds over a VAST area. In fact, Ike is so ginormous that if you placed him over the state of NJ, Hurricane winds would cover the entire state and Tropical Storm Force winds would move into Pennsylvania and into Connecticut, going through NY. He is a massive beast.. despite the low sustained winds. This is what scares me the most.
People, despite being under MANDATORY evacuations, which I will get to later.. will not take Ike seriously due to Gustav's "bust" in the Gulf. He was forecasted to become this monster, and, didn't. Yet, over the last 24 hours not a darn thing has happened, which worries me. Not in a sense of Ike, but rather the public.
The daily "public" weather watching people have heard about Ike being a serious threat. Sure, he looks quite the monster. Then they see the main thing people look at, "100mph" winds, and think..


"Gustav! He was stronger and look at what he did! It's been a full day and Ike hasn't gained anything, darn weather men. Getting paid for being wrong all the time"

Sad, but true. I hear it all the time. This is what worries me about this already. Here we are again, forecasted storm to become a savage beast, and didn't. Ike is rather different, though. Please people, do not underestimate the strength of a storm. Just because it's Only a category two, doesn't make it not-dangerous. Ike is probably the most dangerous hurricane since Katrina. He will devastate the Texas Coast. He will kill people. It's going to happen.. here's why.
Since hitting the GOM again, Ike has been struggling to form a single eye. This is the entire key to why Ike hasn't exploded in strength. I will try to keep everything rather simple here, because I know most of you don't know much terminology or care, but I'll try to keep it rather simple.
If you look at the serious "will", if you will, Ike has had and pushed through in order to get to where he is now, it's astonishing. Just the track of the storm for this late into the hurricane season is a bit "obtuse", "rare". There aren't many hurricanes on record, if any, that have taken a track close to Ike's at this point, and have come out in the GOM only to intensify further than what he was originally. -Scratch that- Even hold water into the GOM, rather than intensify
Such conditions Ike has experienced in the GOM are by far above favorable. Although not quite perfect, everything is certainly there to tap in to. Yet, over the last 24 hours not a darn thing has happened, which worries me. Not in a sense of Ike, but rather the public.
The daily "public" weather watching people have heard about Ike being a serious threat. Sure, he looks quite the monster. Then they see the main thing people look at, "100mph" winds, and think..


"Gustav! He was stronger and look at what he did! It's been a full day and Ike hasn't gained anything, darn weather men. Getting paid for being wrong all the time"

Sad, but true. I hear it all the time. On to the more worrisome thing.
If you look at the history, many probably are thinking: "What the heck is causing Ike to not strengthen, then?"
It's all about the concentric eye walls. Without a well defined area of low pressure, Ike is simply going to be unorganized. He doesn't know what do with himself.

Basically, it's acting like an eye wall replacement cycle, but it's not; There hasn't been a stable eye to begin with, so there's nothing to replace. Ike has had a rather small eye, with a larger eye wall surrounding it. During an eye replacement cycle, you'll get large areas of convection forming massive high top clouds surrounding the eye, giving you the second wall. As this second wall strengthens, the inner eye wall collapses. Usually, the inner eye wall will have the area of lowest pressure, hence a huge pressure jump during EWRCs. The larger eye wall then begins to contract, and stabilizes. The larger the eye wall, the less-likely rapid intensification will occur. (Actually, in this case, I don't find this to be true. Pressure and wind speed outside the actual inner core is probably strong enough to allow explosive/rapid intensification right away, rather than taking a prolonged period of fully replacing the eye like usual.) Like stated earlier as well, the further the distance winds have to travel, the more friction it will face. Vice-verse. After this occurs, the storm doesn't have to worry about it's core and begins to contract. This is Ike's problem; he has a clear moat around the inner eye wall. This is also most likely why we're not seeing this "omg this thing is exploding" type intensification.
People are shunning this storm because it's resources are not being tapped into; most hurricanes do not have such a favorable environment as Ike does. No one is really taking into account how much of an effect this has, hence the commotion about Ike "possible busting".
Be on the look out, though. Things are looking interesting again. If we see a single eye form, hold, and strong convection in ALL quadrants within the inner-portion of the storm, this is where intensification will really occur. Beware, if you see a moat forming again (you will see very broad convection around the eye, a pocket of drier, much warmer cloud tops surrounding the inner eye wall, followed by extremely cold top clouds (major convection, like earlier), we'll be looking at the same process repeat itself again.

• I wrote that last night but never got the chance to post here. Currently, Ike has dropped his inner eye wall and the outer banding wall is contracting and pulling inwards. Very cold top clouds are forming around the center of Ike, which suggests strengthening is starting. While I don't think we will see Ike become a Category 5 or anything, mainly due to his size, I do see that he will strengthen. This is the first reason why Ike will be a problem for Texas.

• Secondly, his size. This will also tie in with the third reason.Due to the size and nature of Ike, many, many areas will be affected by Ike's winds and rain WELL before landfall. In fact, much of the Gulf coast has Tropical Storm Wind Warnings/Hurricane Force Wind Warnings up despite landfall not taking place for more than 30 hours from now. That's saying something. Many areas in Texas will experience high winds for a prolonged period of time, even before the strongest come ashore. Trees will be uprooted. Power lines will fall. Homes will start tearing apart. Water systems will fail and residents will be stranded for days due to impassable roads.
• Again, size. Ike's size directly effect the amount of water up welled below him. Usually, the stronger the winds, the more water Ike gathers in the ocean below. This is surge, like I explained earlier. Since Ike's hurricane force winds extend so far out, a considerable amount of water will be gathered over an area that will come upon shore in Texas. Buoy observations suggest that the area in which Ike's furthest stretched Hurricane Force winds are, the water level is around 23-26 feet above normal. Pile that with wave heights of 20-30 feet, the shoreline of Texas, yes, all of Texas, will receive a DEADLY storm surge. Anyone along the coast should honestly, get moving. You should have been gone a long time ago.

Just for some reinforcement, here's the national weather advisory excerpt for JUST Galveston. This is the exact advisory many other coastal towns have:

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY
DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF
BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

Wait, what did that say?!


WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH

Will update this later. Oh, here's Ike right now..


I'll add the rest of the advisory, just for emphasis..

...WINDS...

PERSONS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED SHOULD PLAN TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN
A WELL BUILT STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT PERSONS WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR
POORLY-BUILT STRUCTURES SHOULD EVACUATE TO A SAFER LOCATION SUCH
AS A WELL BUILT HOME. PERSONS WHO LIVE IN HIGH RISES SHOULD
CONSIDER EVACUATING AS WINDS CAN BE STRONGER AT THE TOP OF A HIGH
RISE THAN AT GROUND LEVEL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATE MORNING FRIDAY...AND SPREAD
INLAND TO THE HOUSTON AREA MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY. WINDS OF AT
LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL THEN POSSIBLY LAST ABOUT
24 HOURS.

DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF IKE...HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATE EVENING ON
FRIDAY...
AND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY LAST FOR UP TO 8 TO 12 HOURS.

PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 100 TO 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
HARRIS...LIBERTY...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.

VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND
DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR
DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED
OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL
INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY
TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM
COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN
OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN
OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE
FATALITIES.

NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES
WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS
WILL BE DAMAGED.

...INLAND FLOODING...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

...TORNADOES...

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE.
YOU SHOULD PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

[Bluearrowll]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Ike's pretty big. it's like 3/4 of the Gulf Cost o_o

[Xception704]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

dude screw you hurricane season.

School is going to be hell when we start up again.

[UberCookieMonster]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Alright, much needed update. I will start this off with a fairly simple statement...
IF YOU LIVE ON THE CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS COAST, GET THE **** OUT.

Done. Left my house at 1:40pm and arrived in Brenham at 5:40pm

Ike's pretty big. it's like 3/4 of the Gulf Cost o_o

The Weather Channel did a Texas and Ike size comparison. Ike could cover about 90-92% of Texas. They also included that Ike could cover 98% of the northeast.

[Tokzic]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

hey guys what's happening in this thread

nothing much up here, just chilling out in canada

[scottish]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Nice pun. Also, glad to hear that Uber.

[korny]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

How crazy is the dallas area going to be?

[marth1992]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

well h-town is fine so far, apparently storm surge just hit galveston
right now, its just windy, and you can feel the pressure drop

[WTFBrandon]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

daaaaaang... I wonder if shyto is still living there. If so I hope she's ok...

[scottish]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Just got home from work. Tons of crap going on. Will update this when I can..

[Windscarredfaith]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Omg. I'm so worried about them. I have a lot of relatives down there. ><

[Nyokou]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

daaaaaang... I wonder if shyto is still living there. If so I hope she's ok...

Shyto, rofl.

I hope she isn't ok.

And yeah Kat, I have relatives in Houston too. I'm not as worried about them as my dad is... since it's his sister, niece, and nephews.

[scottish]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Live feeds from local TX channels

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/livenow?id=6384042

Geraldo's feed

http://www.foxnews.com/video2/live.html?chanId=3

(no sound)

As I'm posting this, reports have been pretty nasty. Much of galveston is 13 ft underwater, huge fires have broken out in Houston. I'm afraid people are going to underestimate the backside of this storm. =/

Anyway.. Eye is currently over Galveston and many other places. Will be an hour or so before the weather starts to deteriorate again..

[marth1992]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

yea, there was only one huge fire i know about, benningtons(?) the restaurant burned down to the ground, not sure why, but it showed the firefighters on the news