Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?
Alright, time for a much needed (small, but informative) update. We'll make things quick
Things to look out for..
1. Hanna's soaking rains throughout the Northeast.
2. Ike
3. Ike
4. IKE
Can't really stress Ike enough. Let's go into some specs, starting with Hanna.
Not much to really cover here.. The National Hurricane Center suggest Hanna is still a Tropical Storm despite having a 978mb pressure (Cat 1 easily). It's disorganization suggests that even though there might be a small chance for higher winds to exist right around the area of maximum vorticity, it's not plausible to make it into a hurricane. I semi-disagree but whatever.
The entire Eastern Seaboard has Tropical Storm/Wind warnings up, including flood watches and all that good stuff. The Mid-Atlantic will see the most rain from Hanna, dumping between 2-7 inches of rain within the next 24 hours.
The one good thing about Hanna is it's rapidly moving to the north-northwest and will take a north-east jog within the next 12-15 hours, after landfall. Here's some maps so I can just get on to Ike. If anyone lives in the flood prone areas, just use some caution while driving and don't drive into higher waters. Plain and simple, don't be stupid.
Current Satellite Image:
Rainfall forecasts:
That wraps Hanna up for now. Will update sometime with any important stuff.
Now to the exciting/holy **** no/omg stuff.
Ike!! I don't think I've used this word enough in this thread.
Anyway, Ike is serious. Serious Ike is serious about being serious.
Ike is currently under wind sheer higher up in the atmosphere. He's weakened a tad but, but is still dangerous (On the border of being a mid-cat 3 and a low cat 3). Winds are currently at 120mph and he has a central pressure of 958mb. What people need to understand is that, normally, sheer really devastates hurricanes and their capability of strengthening. Ike, unlike-the-usual-, hasn't been effected nearly as much as most canes' would be. In fact, the eye wall became distinct again in the midst of 30-knot sheer (35mph winds in the 400-600mb range) and then disappeared again. He's really fighting off this sheer, which is forecasted to diminish within 12-18 hours from now. Ike still has PLENTY, and I mean PLENTY, of warm water to tap into before even coming near any land (next land mass in the way is the Bahamas). We could honestly be looking at a Category 4 landfall in the Bahamas, A Cat 4 landfall in the Keys, and then moving into the Gulf with no weakening at all. On the other hand, Ike could very well end up taking a north-east jog again, following Hanna do to a high-pressure system steering him up the coast. On another look, he could end up going into Cuba and then emerging into the Gulf again to strengthen. It's still up in the air, since the amount of error is relatively high this far out in model concensus and regular forecasting. I'll let the 5-day Cone, Wind Forecast, Sat. Images, etc, do some talking.
(Remember with this wind table, it's EXTREMELY conservative)
As you can see here, the brighter pink, (high-top convection), is developing/still there. Ike's outflow is looking impressive under sheer, and all signs are hinting to once the sheer diminishes, RAPID INTENSIFICATION (Remember I talked about Gustav undergoing this?) again, but at a much more, serious, level.
Anyway, will update this either later (If I'm up) or tomorrow after work. Should have a rather "better" forecast in terms of the path and strength Ike could potentially have.
Alright, time for a much needed (small, but informative) update. We'll make things quick
Things to look out for..
1. Hanna's soaking rains throughout the Northeast.
2. Ike
3. Ike
4. IKE
Can't really stress Ike enough. Let's go into some specs, starting with Hanna.
Not much to really cover here.. The National Hurricane Center suggest Hanna is still a Tropical Storm despite having a 978mb pressure (Cat 1 easily). It's disorganization suggests that even though there might be a small chance for higher winds to exist right around the area of maximum vorticity, it's not plausible to make it into a hurricane. I semi-disagree but whatever.
The entire Eastern Seaboard has Tropical Storm/Wind warnings up, including flood watches and all that good stuff. The Mid-Atlantic will see the most rain from Hanna, dumping between 2-7 inches of rain within the next 24 hours.
The one good thing about Hanna is it's rapidly moving to the north-northwest and will take a north-east jog within the next 12-15 hours, after landfall. Here's some maps so I can just get on to Ike. If anyone lives in the flood prone areas, just use some caution while driving and don't drive into higher waters. Plain and simple, don't be stupid.
Current Satellite Image:
Rainfall forecasts:
That wraps Hanna up for now. Will update sometime with any important stuff.
Now to the exciting/holy **** no/omg stuff.
Ike!! I don't think I've used this word enough in this thread.
Anyway, Ike is serious. Serious Ike is serious about being serious.
Ike is currently under wind sheer higher up in the atmosphere. He's weakened a tad but, but is still dangerous (On the border of being a mid-cat 3 and a low cat 3). Winds are currently at 120mph and he has a central pressure of 958mb. What people need to understand is that, normally, sheer really devastates hurricanes and their capability of strengthening. Ike, unlike-the-usual-, hasn't been effected nearly as much as most canes' would be. In fact, the eye wall became distinct again in the midst of 30-knot sheer (35mph winds in the 400-600mb range) and then disappeared again. He's really fighting off this sheer, which is forecasted to diminish within 12-18 hours from now. Ike still has PLENTY, and I mean PLENTY, of warm water to tap into before even coming near any land (next land mass in the way is the Bahamas). We could honestly be looking at a Category 4 landfall in the Bahamas, A Cat 4 landfall in the Keys, and then moving into the Gulf with no weakening at all. On the other hand, Ike could very well end up taking a north-east jog again, following Hanna do to a high-pressure system steering him up the coast. On another look, he could end up going into Cuba and then emerging into the Gulf again to strengthen. It's still up in the air, since the amount of error is relatively high this far out in model concensus and regular forecasting. I'll let the 5-day Cone, Wind Forecast, Sat. Images, etc, do some talking.
(Remember with this wind table, it's EXTREMELY conservative)As you can see here, the brighter pink, (high-top convection), is developing/still there. Ike's outflow is looking impressive under sheer, and all signs are hinting to once the sheer diminishes, RAPID INTENSIFICATION (Remember I talked about Gustav undergoing this?) again, but at a much more, serious, level.
Anyway, will update this either later (If I'm up) or tomorrow after work. Should have a rather "better" forecast in terms of the path and strength Ike could potentially have.
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