Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

[Xception704]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Category 1 now.

I'm glad I didn't evac.

[Bluearrowll]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

There's rumours that the levees are going to break.

[scottish]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Haha Shox. Alright, maybe that was a bit much, but it's true. Gustav will slowly become a remnant low, and rain remains the problem. Actually, not just the rain, the slowing down of Gustav as well. When a hurricane weakens over land, it loses it's eye wall; in other words, the wind. While there is no high wind threat, the remnant low still remains tropical. You'll have an area of low pressure that produces no more than 30-40mph winds/gusts around it, but the banding of rain is not just a mockery. A stalling tropical feature has the capabilities of producing 12, 18, 24, 30 inches of rain in a specific location. 30 inches of rain, throughout the course two days, is the same as for what I get here in NJ throughout an entire 8 months, on average.
Two things though.
A.. Luckily Texas has been in a drought type-weather pattern and they need the rain. Any rain over Texas is good.. but not in such a short time period.
B.. Local gulf cities don't need the rain. Levees are already getting tested and lakes and rivers are already higher than normal.

It's a proven fact that flooding causes more deaths than any other weather related incident. While we're not looking at a "Category 5 omg ****ing run" type storm, people under-perceive the danger that water can cause and that's exactly why it's so dangerous.
Anyway, be back in an hour or two with updates.

[Devour]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Holy ****.
They're ****ed O:

I feel really bad for them though, I mean, ****.
They just started nearing the finish of rebuilding, then BAM!
Another one.
Crappp..

btw hi scott <3

[scottish]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Well, I guess it's time for some updates..

I'll start with weakening Hurricane Gustav..

I know a lot of people are going to say, "Hey, Gustav wasn't bad at all, wtf! Why was everyone hyping this up?" Uh, the potential was definitely there. Gustav had the opportunity to potentially destroy cities along the Gulf Coast. Before crossing Cuba, it had packed winds sustained at One-hundred and fifty miles per hour. Unexpectedly, a lot more dry air had worked it's way into Gustav, preventing the eye wall from re-forming completely throughout any point in the Gulf. If Gustav had kept it's strength, and wasn't forced so far west, believe me, if you thought Katrina was rough, this would have been three times worse.

Anyway, Gustav is over land currently, in southern Louisiana to be exact, and has weakened to a Category One storm; with winds around 80mph with higher gusts. Expect Gustav to weaken dramatically, as any storm will over land, and soon be a TS or depression. Like I stated earlier, winds wont be much of a threat for anyone anymore; the rain will. I'll include projected rainfall again here:

Here's the track of the remnants of Gustav over the next 5 days:


Current Radar and track of the storm:


Rainfall:

Day 2:


Day three:


Overall 6 day rainfall forecast:


Other than that, there's not much else I can talk about really. I wont know any reports of damage/deaths/etc. for another day or so, so I'll just add anything interesting, if anything, here. In the meantime, enjoy some photos of Gustav.








Anyway, that wraps Gustav up for now.

On to other things in the tropics..

Hanna! Alright, once again, we have another Hurricane about to make landfall to the US. I hope Gustav's "no show" doesn't have any effect on people residing in the SC/GA coastline. Seriously, many people underestimate what tropical weather can do. They see "Oh, Category One, lulz. We'll be fine" A day later, there are no trees sitting in your living room. The power is still up. There's still a roof on your house. Except, you go to open the front door and a 6 foot surge of water comes rushing into your home, your ass gets nailed to the floor, and your home is now getting swept down this giant body of water because the nearby river topped it's flood stage from recent rain and poured raging waters into the neighborhood. Lulz my ass.
Oh, speaking of which, this was Gustav in Jamaica..


Anyway, back to Hanna.
Currently, Hanna is sitting relatively close to the Bahamas. At this point, she is actually tracking southward, which is soon to change. Residents in the Bahamas have hurricane warnings posted up already, with the effects of Hanna beginning tonight. Within the next two days or so, Hanna will start to drift north/NW wards towards the Eastern Coast of the US. Here is the current projection:


For anyone who cares, the computer models..


MacG, currently, I don't want to say anything until a more general consensus between the models for the track becomes a bit more clearer. However, you will get rain, obviously, and winds. I honestly don't see Hanna becoming a major hurricane in terms of Cat3+, but you never know. Right now Hanna is being torn apart by wind shear from Gustav's outflow. As Gustav tracks inland and starts to dissipate, Hanna will then be allowed to strengthen more. Until then, expect her strength to remain the same, or drop, within the next day or two as it's movement is practically stationary.

Ike! Yes, it's getting a bit ridiculous. We go three months into the hurricane season having only 5 named storms; one hitting the US directly, and then within the last week we gain 4, two more have potential within the next week as well. Here's the NHC prediction for formation on the next storms:


As you can see, we have Gustav, Hanna, Ike, and another area of >50% chance of development. After that, it looks like another impressive, rather large area of disturbed weather will move off the shore of Africa, and we start the entire process all over again. Areas 2 and 3 are undergoing serious shear, so I don't, as well as this forecast, see it forming into anything as of now.

Also, let's include another lesson on something in this write up.
We'll talk about "Cape Verde Hurricanes", which Ike could possibly end up turning in to.

Cape Verde type hurricanes, just as the name suggests, start devlopment near the Cape Verde Islands, as shown here:




What is distinctly differentiates these types of storms from every other tropical wave that passes off the coast of Africa is the stage of development. Cape Verde-type storms usually start organizing so early in the Atlantic that it has the entire ocean to gain strength. If you guys remember Hurricane Andrew (Cat 5), Ivan (Cat 5), and many others; these were Cape Verde-type hurricanes. Basically, the track is determined by something called the subtropical ridge in the Atlantic, or sometimes called Bermuda High, or Azores High. This ridge is a permanent high pressure system that, like any other H system, also as I stated in another post, always spins in a clockwise motion. It's this motion, along with the strength of the ridge, and location, that is what steers the hurricane/TS/D/Wave throughout the Atlantic.


What does this have to do with Ike? Well, here we are with Ike currently..



Satellite:


You can start to see the banding tropical cyclones get with Ike here. Circulation is starting to look better organized, everything is pointing towards intensification over the next week through the warm, low sheer, open waters of the Atlantic. Ike is forming pretty far out, and we'll definitely need to keep an eye on this for another possible US landfall within the next weeks to come. I'll keep Ike updated as well.

For now, I'll keep this as it is. Hope you guys enjoy.

[Netjet!]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Awesome post. Good thing Gustav's only a cat 1 right now

[scottish]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Thanks xD
Btw, Ike is looking interesting. A few models have Ike turning into a monster, while a few have it staying rather weak, but still a hurricane. Will be looking into this. I'll do some more updates tomorrow on Hanna and Ike, and I99, (Invest), which could become the next depression soon.

[scottish]

ITT: Tropical Weather 8)

My oh my.. Speaking of I99 becoming a depression soon..
000
WTNT35 KNHC 020834
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

...TENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.9 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES...270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY...AND MOVE AWAY
FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...12.4 N...23.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Holy crap are the tropics active. This is fun xD
Anyway, here's what things look like now..

[macgravel]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Awesome stuff. I can't wait to see your next reports.

[scottish]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Thanks! Will do either when I wake up or after work, depending on my laziness.
Also, if you think I'm worked up over the tropics, wait until winter comes. I'll most likely dedicate a thread for Winter Storms as well. School Closures, Snowfall, etc. Should be fun.

EDIT: Here's the 5 day cone

[WorkonMe]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

What most surprised me was "Hannah" which I did not know about >.> Thanks Scott.

[scottish]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Haven't updated this yet, but I will soon. A few key points of interest, in the meantime..

• Tropical Storm Ike is now a Category 4 hurricane. Ike has deeply intensified within the last 12 hours and still is. He has 135mph winds and is forecasted to track near the Bahamas and Cuba currently.
• Josephine is a weak mess churning in the Atlantic. Nothing really to discuss here. No threat to any land currently.
• Hanna, is now a threat to the entire Eastern Seaboard. Currently, NHC and other forecasting agencies have Hanna becoming a Hurricane again within the next 12 hours and it slowly takes a turn up towards North Carolina. It is apparent Hanna will make landfall somewhere in the Carolinas and ride the coastline all the way up to Boston. While Hanna isn't a severe threat to the US, it will bring rain and tropical storm force winds up and down the coast.

Will update either later today or tomorrow.

[IAAW]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

I'm supposed to get raped by Hanna. I don't really care, I should be fine. Only thing to really worry about is flooding, and I think that will be controllable.

[poochieCREAM]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

in australia we call hurricanes, cyclones

we're so messed up.

[andy-o24]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Gustav did some damage, nothing to match Katrina though. Josephene is barely a hurricane I belive or if it is, it's in the middle catagory 1 range. Ike I'm most concerned about. From the looks of things, Ike is going to hit up Cuba and Hispaniola and then head straight up into Florida(info). It still is projected to have two full days before making landfall giving it ample time to intensify.

Not at all an effort to steal this thread from Scottish, just my worries for those of you in the Southern United States. We'll see how this turns out over the next couple of days. Hopefully we will all still be healthy after these storms pass. Best of luck to all.

-o24