Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

[Jtehanonymous]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

This is an awesome write-up; very informative

I live in Florida and I am scared.
Hannah Montana cannot be stopped.

[AC1speakerbox]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Never in my life have I seen a post of this magnitude.

[Waffl3]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Really informative post. Im glad to be safe here in Canada.

[25thhour]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Canada Ftw.

Don't get that crap up here.

[Cloud0005]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Damn, they just got over Katrina. :/

Not even, they're still rebuilding.

[DarknessXoXLight]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Damn Scottie you meteorologist in the making. o_O
What an indepth post.
Very helpful. :]
I might show this to my Earth & Space Teacher, rofl.

And agh this is so gonna suck for New Orleans. >_>

[scottish]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Alright, 11pm update.
Gustav has decreased, but not in any way, shape or form I will use the words "weakened". A category 3 storm can still pack enough heat to burn the catcher's glove, if you know what I mean. Anyway, here's some specs, pics and discussion:

August 31st, 5PM: Gustav has undergone some upper level shear throughout it's course through the loop current of the Gulf. Despite the decrease in winds, Gustav will still be a dangerous threat, and still could definitely intensify (in fact, forecasted to, but no where near like a few days ago). As of 7PM, Gustav's central pressure was dropping (which means it is intensifying) and winds had picked up about 5 kts. (or about 7.5 mph) Reconnaissance planes have been moving in and out of Gustav taking the normal sonde reports and will do so until landfall. The 11pm update is not out yet, so when it does come out, I'll post it here.

Here are some current satellite images of Gustav, in IR since visible SI isn't available due to it being night.








As you can see, the eye wall isn't nearly as confined or well formed as before, though, through the Water Vapor imagery, we can see that major convection is occurring on the south/southwest portion of the storm. The vertical sheer has taken some toll upon the northern part of the eye wall, but since the pressure seems to be dropping, we can assume that it is undergoing some sort of "eye wall replacement" type of strengthening. In stronger hurricanes, re-development within the eye wall occurs every once in awhile; reconstructing and strengthening the inner core of the storm. You may see the pressure fluctuating when this happens, which could exactly be what Gustav is doing. Anyway, the update just came in so I'll just excerpt and post here:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 010257
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV BECAME MORE SYMMETRIC EARLIER
IN THE EVENING AND WAS GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CORE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...WHICH HAD BEEN FALLING...SEEMS TO HAVE
STABILIZED WITH THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATE BEING 954 MB. FLIGHT LEVEL
AND SFMR DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL
AROUND 100 KT...WITH A PEAK SMFR WIND OF 100 KT JUST OBSERVED A FEW
MINUTES AGO...AND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 114 KT. THE SFMR DATA
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED...
SPREADING OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER A LARGER AREA. DROPSONDE
DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 300 AND 500 MB WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE CENTER OF GUSTAV
FROM THE SOUTH. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF
GUSTAV WILL LIKELY BE NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM ITS CURRENT CATEGORY
THREE STRENGTH. NONE OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS...THE
GFDL...HWRF...SHIPS...AND LGEM SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE REMAINING
TIME GUSTAV HAS OVER WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/14. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THAT SHOWS GUSTAV MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST ABOUT RIGHT ON TOP OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE. AFTER THAT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY. AS BEFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS IN THE EXPECTATION
THAT GUSTAV WILL SHEAR OFF...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 27.3N 88.1W 100 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 28.6N 89.9W 105 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 30.1N 91.9W 85 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/1200Z 31.1N 93.3W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 03/0000Z 31.8N 94.3W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/0000Z 32.0N 95.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 05/0000Z 32.0N 95.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 96.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


Just as suspected, not much has changed, though showing some signs of intensification.
I'll include the current projected path, storm surge, wave height, etc, for landfall purposes.




Gustav's track has actually slightly moved west than what it has previously. This is much much better news for New Orleans, thankfully.


This below image, the red area has now grown larger, meaning hurricane force winds extend further out than the eye wall. This is bad news, unfortunately.
A much broader area will receive higher winds now, doing more damage.


Once again, storm surge probability:


New Orleans is still in the 100% percent category. This, obviously, is bad news.

Even Worse:


Yeah, New Orleans is basically projected to have 15-22 ft of storm surge.. and for those of you who don't know
what storm surge is..


Basically, the water rises due to the hurricane winds dragging water with it upon landfall. So if the forecast is
for a single point along the coast-line to have 15ft waves, with an 18 foot storm surge, the initial, already monstrous
15 foots waves are forming 18 feet above MSL. Technically, 33 foot waves. Add the in the combination of rainfall,
which is projected at, just on day 1,


And you get catastrophic water damage. And just for the hell of it, I'm sure NO will pick up more than the projected 8.11 inches of rain.
I wouldn't doubt to see locally 1'-2' precipitation totals for the area over the next two days. Here is day 2 and 3..





Oh, btw, this is some more storm surge..




Pretty damn scary.. o_o


Anyway, landfall is just the beginning of the problems Gustav will occur. Like every other hurricane or tropical system, the threat
of Tornadoes is very eminent. On top of wind, rain, surge.. it seems a bit overwhelming.

Here are the current warnings put out for the Gulf. As you can see, even though this storm is making landfall in Louisiana, it will affect
the entire Gulf Coast.


Florida is in the middle of where Tornadoes are favorable. For those of you in Florida, keep and eye to the sky and
watch out for updates and warnings.

Just to show how this isn't just in interest of the Gulf, here are the oil rigs in the Gulf.


Uh, let's just say almost every single Central/Western planning areas are shut down. Expect gas prices to spike within the
coming weeks.


For now, I'll keep it at this. I'll update later tonight with some more information and such.

[super kid]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Oh gosh. If Katrina was a level three hurricane i can only imagine what New Orleans is going to look like after Gustav. Actually on second thought i don't want to imagine what its going to look like.

[scottish]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

While the gulf is embracing for Gustav, let's move to Hanna for just a second. I want to show you guys something interesting ;D

Alright, this model I'm about to show you is called the GFS, or short for Global Forecast System. It's a model that is somewhat reliable for 1-10 days out for the U.S. Basically, it determines troughs and ridges from input data, temperatures, etc. From that, it extrapolates thus giving us a longer ranged forecast. Based upon the accuracy from run to run, will determine it's overall accuracy for the further days out. The model, like others, runs at 0z, 6z, 12z, 18z. Z stands for Zulu time, which is also known as GMT (Greenwich Mean Time) or UTC (Coordinated Universal Time).
Usually, it's just a simple conversion with time. But, since we're retarded and use daylight savings still, it becomes a bit tricky. I'll just lay out the times since it get's confusing.
Since we're currently in DST, here are the correct times for GMT.
0z= 8pm
6z= 2am
12z= 8am
18z= 2pm
Each model run is usually 3 hours long, in which NCEP and NWS include the model run outputs on their sites. Many sites have access to this, and basically anyone can learn how to read the graphical/map outputs.
NOTE: 0Z and 12Z runs are more accurate than the 6Z and 18Z runs. 0Z and 12Z runs are the times actual data are inputted into the model for extraction. The 6Z and 18Z are based off of the 0z and 12z runs.

Anyway, back to where I was. The GFS, 6z run is currently underway. Within it's time frame, we can see Hanna develop and it's location. While it isn't going to look quite impressive on the maps I'm about to post due to the nature and specific area the model is used for, it will give a general consensus on where the precipitation will fall and when. Of course each model run will vary and finally conclude with the actual current weather, but it's a useful tool for predictions and many weather sites base their forecast on it.

To the model run:
I'll keep it simple by posting the MSLP 1000mb-500mb panel charts. For those of you who don't understand this, let me explain briefly so you have some idea of what I'm posting rather than green blotches and blue stuff and squiggly lines.
MSLP stand for Mean Sea Level Pressure. 1000mb-500mb is basically layers within our atmosphere. Sea Level Pressure is usually around 1013mb, generally. You should all know, as you go up in the atmosphere, pressure is reduced. Well, this is basically what this is referencing to. The area between 1000mb and 500mb is what's called the "planetary boundary", where most of our weather takes place on Earth. Sure, at 200mb resides the infamous "jet stream", but no weather that will affect us on the ground resides up there. So that's that.




Might look a bit confusing xD. Alright, I'm not going to go in depth with everything on the map; I'd be here for hours. We'll focus on the location of that Low pressure system off the Carolina coast (which is Hanna) and where it goes. That image is at 120 hours out from 6Z. Hanna is currently off the immediate Carolina coast at 120H out. It looks interesting, to say the least, and is being steered by that large black line to the right of it. That line is actually called a pressure gradient. Since the isobar (the black line lol) is spread far out, like what's sitting in the pacific coast, it's an area of high pressure. Due to the nature of this high, which is located near Bermuda. High pressure systems are relatively dry in terms of precipitation, hold areas of higher pressure (higher than 1013mb) and generally flow in a clockwise direction (in the northern hemisphere, at least). Since there's a tremendous area of high pressure sitting over Bermuda, it's presence is directly effecting Hanna and her location. Strong southerly winds are forcing Hanna up the Northeast coast, rather than taking a turn out to sea.

As you can see, the paragraph above now has nothing to do with the 4panel I posted. Rofl. I edited the previous discussion out. I'll fix this later.







EDIT: 5AM Discussion just came out. Good news!
000
WTNT42 KNHC 010915
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT GUSTAV IS NOT STRENGTHENING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN
SLIGHTLY AND...BASED ON RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WIND
MEASUREMENTS...100 KT IS A GENEROUS ESTIMATE FOR THE CURRENT
INTENSITY. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE WALL IS OPEN
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...PERHAPS DUE TO THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTH THAT WAS DISCUSSED
EARLIER. IN FACT...THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS DID NOT REPORT
AN EYEWALL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS A DRY INTRUSION AND
A RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE HURRICANE. ALSO THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A BIT MORE
RAGGED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH APPEARS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

GUSTAV CONTINUES MOVING BRISKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...315/14. THE
HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE/HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE HIGH WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AND THEREFORE GUSTAV'S FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TO SLOW
LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW...I.E. AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND.
THE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES ILL-DEFINED LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND THE TRACK MODELS BECOME HIGHLY DIVERGENT. IF GUSTAV
REMAINED A VERTICALLY-COHERENT CYCLONE IT WOULD PROBABLY RESPOND TO
AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
PART OF GUSTAV WILL BE SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND IN THE EAST TEXAS AREA. THAT IS
BASICALLY WHAT WE ARE INDICATING IN THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
WHICH SHOWS GUSTAV OR ITS REMNANTS SLOWING TO A CRAWL IN DAYS 3 TO
5. SUCH SLOW MOTION WOULD EXACERBATE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND
INLAND FLOODING.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 28.4N 89.5W 100 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 29.5N 91.1W 100 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 02/0600Z 30.7N 92.8W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/1800Z 31.4N 93.9W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 03/0600Z 31.8N 94.7W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 04/0600Z 32.0N 95.5W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 96.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 06/0600Z 32.0N 96.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[CyanoticXtC]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Very nice, Scottish. Helps me keep track of how home is doing better than the emails i signed up for.

[roundbux]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

this is awesome

nicely done scottish

[macgravel]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

So I live in Hinesville, Georgia, which is pretty much right on the coast. How screwed am I? I live in a trailer for crying out loud. There's going to be nothing left of my home (unless a miracle happens and Hannah takes a drastic turn and doesn't really hit).

[scottish]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Alright, this post is going to be short because my internet keeps dropping and I haven't been able to write something up yet.

Good news is that the levees are holding in NO, some are overflowing but none of them have been broken as of yet. New Orleans actually got away with being fine on this one, Gustav pushed to the west and weakened as it came along shore. Anything to the east of where it made landfall and it could have been far worse.

As for Gustav's reign of terror; it's far from over. There's tornado watches and warnings everywhere, associated with the tropical downpours and heavy embedded thunderstorms in the outer bands and northeast center of the storm. The biggest problem now remains the rain. Gustav is forecasted to slow down drastically and head towards Texas. Anywhere from the Texas area all the way to the panhandle of Florida needs to watch out for major flooding as Gustav will be slow to track through the area. I'll cover this later when I do another write up.

As for Macgravel, I'll do a write up on Hanna, her projected path, strength, and other things later today. Currently, Hanna has been upgraded to a hurricane. The upper level low that was sheering her apart has weakened allowing Hanna to strengthen. Nothing is going to happen as of yet; she's trekking around near the Bahamas and wont pick up and speed in her movement for the next day or two.

Lastly, soon to be Ike. That area of disturbed weather near the Cape Verde islands is much much better organized now and has formed into a depression. It's forecast is to trek towards the Gulf, strengthening along the way. No one is in any danger within the next few days with this storm either.

To the people who have been reading these posts: Thanks. I enjoy writing things like this up. If anyone has any questions, like Mac's, just let me know and I'll do my best to keep things tracked so people are aware of what is happening.

I'll be back later to update Gustav, Hanna and Ike. =p

[macgravel]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

As for Macgravel, I'll do a write up on Hanna, her projected path, strength, and other things later today.

Yay! <33333333

To the people who have been reading these posts: Thanks. I enjoy writing things like this up.

It's been a really interesting read so far.

[shieldmaiden]

Re: Hurricane Gustav, Hanna.. and what? Possibly Ike?

Very well done and nicely detailed.

Global warming >:O