MrRubix's Riddle Thread

[Reach]

Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread

No correct answers thus far.

How is this thread going to continue given Rubix's account for this thread is banned >_> I quite like puzzle threads.

[Eudimorphodon]

Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread

Well i think Two stones will be dropped before the buckets pass each other..

[arrekusuof93]

Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread

No correct answers thus far.

How is this thread going to continue given Rubix's account for this thread is banned >_> I quite like puzzle threads.

QuadDamage = Rubix

[Reach]

Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread

QuadDamage = Rubix

I knew that.

QuadDamage can't edit the first post now can he? I suppose Rubix can continue to post riddles within the thread like myself, but that isn't nearly as convenient.

[x After Dawn x]

Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread

Get Rubix to make a new thread with his QD account...by the time it gets banned for ban-evading, his original account should be unbanned.

[QuadDamage]

Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread

My original is permabanned.



Anyways, new riddle for you guys:

On the FFR island, weather is either sunny or snowy, and follows these heuristics:
If today is snowy, the chance of snow tomorrow is 50%.
If it's sunny today, the chance of snow tomorrow is 80%.
So if it snowed today, what's the probability that it snowed yesterday?

[x After Dawn x]

Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread

Wait, what? You got permabanned for posting an in-before-lock gif? That's a bit extreme.

[QuadDamage]

Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread

The additional bans came from me making extra accounts in order to view the forums.

I should add though I was also having an extremely bad day, as my doctor pretty much told me that if I wanted to keep my hands functioning, I'd have to pretty much kill off my hobbies (I have many and they're all hand-intensive).

Also was upset that the initial ban cut into my subscription.

[tuv]

Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread

65%

[QuadDamage]

Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread

tuv: And your logic is...?

[arrekusuof93]

Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread

65%

He took 50+80 and divided by two. He got the average.

EDIT: holy hell Quad wasn't banned when I posted that. I go back to the previous page and he's banned. :-/

[x After Dawn x]

Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread

Yeah, just refreshed and he's banned...damn.

P.S. I'll go out on a limb and guess 65 % as a split average of both 80 % and 50 %, but I'm pretty sure I'm missing proportionality between the split. Then again, I don't think I'll ever figure out if I was right or not...

[tuv]

Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread

well there is nothing telling you if in the previous day it was snowing or not so I averaged out the probability of if it was snowing or if it was sunny.

[GWC_MrRubix]

Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread

Say I reword the problem:

On the FFR island, weather is either sunny or snowy, and follows these heuristics:
If today is snowy, the chance of snow tomorrow is 99.999999999%.
If it's sunny today, the chance of snow tomorrow is 0.0000000001%.
So if it snowed today, what's the probability that it snowed yesterday?

I mean you're not going to say it was with 50% chance that it snowed yesterday. Odds are it was much higher, because you're MUCH, MUCH more likely to get a snowy day from a snowy day than a snowy day from a sunny day.

Because the current-state events are DEPENDENT on past-state events, they are *not* independent events, and therefore you have to take into account that today's weather could have been an outcome from either past event. Simply taking an average of the two isn't the correct way to do it.

[x After Dawn x]

Re: MrRubix's Riddle Thread

Your question states that there are percentages for "snow tomorrow", but they do not show the alternative weather for the other remaining percentage(s). Based on this data, it's impossible to answer the question because if today was snowy and the chance of snow tomorrow was 99.9 % (I'm rounding it down), I do not know what will happen in the other 0.01 % (which means it could be rainy, or something that the question does not state). The same thing goes for the other part of the question; if it was sunny today, and if the probability of snow the next day is 0.01 %, then I do not know what will happen in the other 99.9 %, which could hold data that was needed in order to answer the question properly.