Hurricane Florence

[ShAiOnEiX]

Re: Hurricane Florence

https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~dmcgee/Carbon/Readings_files/Beerling_Berner_02.pdf

Ok and no I'm not going to explain a gradeschool concept to you just because you think I do not understand how it works.

EDIT: TBH this is a TLDR source you can just use the tables to find the data I was going to just link wikipedia because it gives you that info right there but I figured you would call me out for it since it's wikipedia.

Also you know I had to use DuckDuckGo just to find this source? Google wouldn't even give me any data results on this besides wikipedia to find an actual backed accredited source pretty stupid if you ask me.

[aperson]

Re: Hurricane Florence

https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~dmcge..._Berner_02.pdf

Ok and no I'm not going to explain a gradeschool concept to you just because you think I do not understand how it works.

EDIT: TBH this is a TLDR source you can just use the tables to find the data I was going to just link wikipedia because it gives you that info right there but I figured you would call me out for it since it's wikipedia.

Also you know I had to use DuckDuckGo just to find this source? Google wouldn't even give me any data results on this besides wikipedia to find an actual backed source pretty stupid if you ask me.

No I'll call you out for using a paleoclimate reconstruction of Tr-J carbon levels from 2004 when our proxy records and constraints on carbon have dramatically improved since then.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2014GL060457

Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration (ca) for the Phanerozoic Eon is estimated from proxies and geochemical carbon cycle models. Most estimates come with large, sometimes unbounded uncertainty. Here, we calculate tightly constrained estimates of ca using a universal equation for leaf gas exchange, with key variables obtained directly from the carbon isotope composition and stomatal anatomy of fossil leaves. Our new estimates, validated against ice cores and direct measurements of ca, are less than 1000 ppm for most of the Phanerozoic, from the Devonian to the present, coincident with the appearance and global proliferation of forests. Uncertainties, obtained from Monte Carlo simulations, are typically less than for ca estimates from other approaches. These results provide critical new empirical support for the emerging view that large (~2000–3000 ppm), long‐term swings in ca do not characterize the post‐Devonian and that Earth's long‐term climate sensitivity to ca is greater than originally thought.

You also failed to provide any sort of supporting evidence that human emissions won't ever top 2000ppm in the first place, but if you want to use actual modern consensus science that exponentially improves year over year, then you'll want to set that upper bound at around 1000ppm instead of 2000. So I'll wait for you to provide some source that global CO2 levels can't surpass 1000ppm under any of our concentration pathway outcomes.


Hitting up google scholar for the first link that you think supports your view is some pretty poor confirmation bias. I'd recommend actually learning how to parse and consume scientific literature in a domain of interest so that you don't make stupid mistakes like this in the future. For paleoclimate literature you're going to want sources that are a) as recent as possible or b) meta-analyses of multiple other sources.

[aperson]

Re: Hurricane Florence

Maybe you aren't getting useful results back because you're asking a stupid question. If you're interested in carbon anomalies in paleoclimate records then you should be asking about the Permian-Triassic boundary or the Paleocene-Eocene boundary. Or hell, how about the Great Oxygenation Event for a plain fucking example of how carbon drawdown causes rapid glaciation.

[ShAiOnEiX]

Re: Hurricane Florence

I mean the article is old but it still backs my claim that carbon levels were at a much higher level 150 million years ago than they are today. I'm not sure what you're trying to prove here because you keep dancing around the topic because the underlying agenda with climate change that is being pushed in the media is that we are emitting way too much Co2 in the atmosphere when it's simply not true.

[aperson]

Re: Hurricane Florence

It doesn't back your claim because the upper bound estimates of 2000 ppm have been refuted by more recent evidence. Our proxy records have high uncertainty that is slowly narrowing over time as we improve our paleoclimate record. The paper that I linked you to was from 2014 and was significantly cited because it refuted those overly high estimates. Modern scientific consensus in 2018 is better than modern scientific consensus in 2004 in the same way that our 5 day hurricane error cone in 2018 is as big as our 3 day hurricane error cone in 2004.

So your claim that carbon levels haven't significantly changed is bullshit because the ceiling is now twice as low as it was originally. And for the record, our current value of ~410ppm is higher than any other time during the quaternary altogether. It hasn't occurred since the mid Paleocene and by the late 21st century we could reach values that are more in line with modern estimates of the Eocene.

And of course, now that your claims are shown to be complete bullshit because someone waltzed into the thread that actually know the science, you're going to go back to your tired trope of calling modern climate science "agenda-driven" because you're a stupid man that can't admit when you're wrong.

[ShAiOnEiX]

Re: Hurricane Florence

It doesn't back your claim because the upper bound estimates of 2000 ppm have been refuted by more recent evidence. Our proxy records have high uncertainty that is slowly narrowing over time as we improve our paleoclimate record. The paper that I linked you to was from 2014 and was significantly cited because it refuted those overly high estimates. Modern scientific consensus in 2018 is better than modern scientific consensus in 2004 in the same way that our 5 day hurricane error cone in 2018 is as big as our 3 day hurricane error cone in 2004.

So your claim that carbon levels haven't significantly changed is bullshit because the ceiling is now twice as low as it was originally. And for the record, our current value of ~410ppm is higher than any other time during the quaternary altogether. It hasn't occurred since the mid Paleocene and by the late 21st century we could reach values that are more in line with modern estimates of the Eocene.

And of course, now that your claims are shown to be complete bullshit because someone waltzed into the thread that actually know the science, you're going to go back to your tired trope of calling modern climate science "agenda-driven" because you're a stupid man that can't admit when you're wrong.

I'm not stupid if that's the case then I am wrong and maybe I need to do more research I'm interested in seeing more info if you want to talk about this somewhere else we can, maybe discord? I would be inclined to hear it from you.

[aperson]

Re: Hurricane Florence

so I used to not really care about climate change and thought that it was probably overhyped. I started seriously learning about it to get a basic understanding of how our earth system works at an atmospheric, biological, and chemical level to essentially sustain life as an ongoing chemical reaction.

The first thing that really made my attention perk up was how non-linear our earth system is and how much it can be perturbed by really small fluctuations to create huge downstream events. Our glacial and inter-glacial cycles throughout the Quaternary are mostly driven by tiny changes in solar radiation created by gyroscopic changes in how the Earth rotates about the sun.

It's a common climate denial argument that these changes in orbital dynamics cause climate change therefore climate change is natural. What really surprised me though is how quantitatively tiny the changes in solar radiation from those effects are. A few percentage points of a change in the incoming shortwave radiation and our planet goes from mostly covered in thick ice to how it looks in the modern era. Then I went and looked at the quantitative changes caused by the radiative forcing of doubling or tripling CO2. Then my eyes got really big because carbon forcing is an order of magnitude larger in effect size in both directions.

If you really want to learn climate science imo you need to quit seeing climate scientists as agenda driven. The fact is that we basically walked up to an amplifier and started cranking one of the knobs up as fast as we could. The changes that we're causing are both drastic and highly uncertain. Paleoclimate records like the end-Permian mass extinction and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum tells us that when we fucked with carbon things get extremely hot and extremely sulfury really fast (and sometimes a lot of things die). The Great Oxygenation Event (and to a lesser extent the Azolla Event) tell us that when we draw down carbon things very rapidly get cold and icy.

Just change your perspective on what climate scientists tell you and go read serious climate sources (check skepticalscience as a phenomenal one for starters) and you can get up to date on 2018 consensus climate knowledge fairly quickly. It's both very well researched and presented with an effort on being publicly visible and digestible.

[Charu]

Re: Hurricane Florence

This thread got hijacked hard, lmao

[aperson]

Re: Hurricane Florence

good interlude time while we wait for ridiculous precipitation numbers to show up tomorrow morning

[aperson]

Re: Hurricane Florence

gl to the OP wilmington is about to get smoked by a newly developing rain band for the next 12+ hours

[melonpapes]

Re: Hurricane Florence

gl to the OP wilmington is about to get smoked by a newly developing rain band for the next 12+ hours

i like aperson cause hes smart

[gold stinger]

Re: Hurricane Florence

even though his brain is full of spiders

where about & when did you start learning about climate change aperson? Did you study it or something? Because that's a paragraph that looks like it came from a university essay.

[aperson]

Re: Hurricane Florence

wilmington's now under the intense rainband and it looks like they're going to have lots of tornado warnings to deal with. be safe reptile.



about the most amount of tornadic couplets i've seen together in any storm.

[Kokonoe Rin]

Re: Hurricane Florence

Here I thought we were going to take this hurricane seriously yet everyone in the area is pretty much memeing the shit out of it but I mean I'm still alive so yay :3

(I'm in NC)

[reptile3141]

Re: Hurricane Florence

wilmington's now under the intense rainband and it looks like they're going to have lots of tornado warnings to deal with. be safe reptile

Appreciate that, man. <3 Everything is still going well where I’m at, and they have been actively working on getting power back in the area. Also kokonoe, where in NC are you at? I know a lot of areas got it worse than we did here. Hope you’re alright, bro.