Dead People From FFR

[Quigly]

Re: Dead People From FFR

thank you for this

[adlp]

Re: Dead People From FFR

isnt it kind of weird to think that every 115 years or so all the people on the earth right now will be dead and replaced by new people

[Quigly]

Re: Dead People From FFR

looking for a person to continue my legacy on ~flashflashrevolution~ positions now available

[noname219]

Re: Dead People From FFR

Taking the average death rate for the western richier countries (which is where we have the most users anyway) : 25 out of 100,000 people dies per year at ages 10-24 years old. Which is 0,025% per year.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graph...daily-chart-14

So, the site has been open since 2002, taking the number of users from Internet Wayback machine and some old FFR news :
January 28th, 2003 = 7,400 members
April 5th, 2004 = 31,200 members
May 12th, 2006 = 869,904 members
October 11th, 2006 = 1,000,000 members
April 23rd, 2008 = 1,486,407 members
January 3rd, 2009 = 1,618,380 members
December 22nd, 2010 = 1,732,501 members
July 21st, 2011 = 1,766,384 members
November 15th, 2012 = 1,821,082 members

Which badly translates to every January 1st :
2003 = 2,000 members
2004 = 7,000 members
2005 = 350,000 members
2006 = 700,000 members
2007 = 1,100,000 members
2008 = 1,400,000 members
2009 = 1,600,000 members
2010 = 1,680,000 members
2011 = 1,735,000 members
2012 = 1,780,000 members
2013 = 1,830,000 members
(those are really approximate numbers)

So...
2003 = 0,025% of 2000 members = 0,5 died
2004 = 0,025% of 7,000 members = 1,75 died
2005 = 0,025% of 350,000 members = 87,5 died
2006 = 0,025% of 700,000 members = 175 died
2007 = 0,025% of 1,100,000 members = 275 died
2008 = 0,025% of 1,400,000 members = 350 died
2009 = 0,025% of 1,600,000 members = 400 died
2010 = 0,025% of 1,680,000 members = 420 died
2011 = 0,025% of 1,735,000 members = 433 died
2012 = 0,025% of 1,780,000 members = 445 died
2013 = 0,025% of 1,830,000 members = 457 died
Add all the numbers (remember the 0,025% was PER YEAR), it gives you a whole 3045 members). Remove about 10% (bots, alts), it gives you 2700-2800 members total that died.

This is only estimates anyway.

This a also a very sad number.

EDIT : I don't wanna do math ever in my life again.

[Izzy]

Re: Dead People From FFR

But whats the average death rate among the age group of users on this site?

Edit: oh nvm you took that into consideration. Yea, bummer.

[qqwref]

Re: Dead People From FFR

Mainly how, after a few generations, there will be all sorts of posts and accounts and YT videos etc that effectively become historical archives of the dead.

Yeah, that's a weird thought. It's already getting that way with things that aren't people - there are tons of videos out there of pets, software, and places that are long gone. It's already pretty weird to watch an older video, still in color and everything, and know that most of the people in it have died... and it'll be even weirder when most of the people who make random personal youtube videos today are dead. Creepy.

On the other hand, it's also pretty damn cool. I mean, just imagine the volume of evidence and stuff there is for culture now, as opposed to even 20 years ago (let alone 100+). I just hope there isn't some Great Google Purge of 2039 that obliterates the past.

[dragonmegaXX]

Re: Dead People From FFR

100% of FFR users will be dead next month anyways so why does it matter

[MikeShinoda12345]

Re: Dead People From FFR

11 members and 4 guests viewing

[Crashfan3]

Re: Dead People From FFR

Well the site's been around for about 10 years, we've got a lot of people who signed up back in the early years when they were 14-16 years old, now inactive and in their mid 20s if they're still alive.

But it's kind of scary to think... what if a victim of the recent Colorado school shooting was an FFR player? Or the Indian Ocean tsunami? What if some FFR players got killed in Iraq or Afghanistan? Or what about the ~10,000 people every year killed by drunk drivers? What if the last thought going through their head was "man, I could be at home trying to get a few extra AAAs right now."

I just hope there isn't some Great Google Purge of 2039 that obliterates the past.

Hard drives keep getting bigger and Google can definitely afford more servers. But if such a thing does happen, it would be an absolute tragedy for the histories and libraries of mankind.

[Choofers]

Re: Dead People From FFR

a moment of silence for jellygod

[VisD]

Re: Dead People From FFR

11 members and 4 guests viewing

Who will be next

[devonin]

Re: Dead People From FFR

Taking the average death rate for the western richier countries (which is where we have the most users anyway) : 25 out of 100,000 people dies per year at ages 10-24 years old. Which is 0,025% per year.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graph...daily-chart-14

So, the site has been open since 2002, taking the number of users from Internet Wayback machine and some old FFR news :
January 28th, 2003 = 7,400 members
April 5th, 2004 = 31,200 members
May 12th, 2006 = 869,904 members
October 11th, 2006 = 1,000,000 members
April 23rd, 2008 = 1,486,407 members
January 3rd, 2009 = 1,618,380 members
December 22nd, 2010 = 1,732,501 members
July 21st, 2011 = 1,766,384 members
November 15th, 2012 = 1,821,082 members

Which badly translates to every January 1st :
2003 = 2,000 members
2004 = 7,000 members
2005 = 350,000 members
2006 = 700,000 members
2007 = 1,100,000 members
2008 = 1,400,000 members
2009 = 1,600,000 members
2010 = 1,680,000 members
2011 = 1,735,000 members
2012 = 1,780,000 members
2013 = 1,830,000 members
(those are really approximate numbers)

So...
2003 = 0,025% of 2000 members = 0,5 died
2004 = 0,025% of 7,000 members = 1,75 died
2005 = 0,025% of 350,000 members = 87,5 died
2006 = 0,025% of 700,000 members = 175 died
2007 = 0,025% of 1,100,000 members = 275 died
2008 = 0,025% of 1,400,000 members = 350 died
2009 = 0,025% of 1,600,000 members = 400 died
2010 = 0,025% of 1,680,000 members = 420 died
2011 = 0,025% of 1,735,000 members = 433 died
2012 = 0,025% of 1,780,000 members = 445 died
2013 = 0,025% of 1,830,000 members = 457 died
Add all the numbers (remember the 0,025% was PER YEAR), it gives you a whole 3045 members). Remove about 10% (bots, alts), it gives you 2700-2800 members total that died.

This is only estimates anyway.

This a also a very sad number.

EDIT : I don't wanna do math ever in my life again.

The actual number of humans represented by the number of members is dramatically smaller.

No account is ever deleted outright from the database. This means every single bot, spider, and spam/sales account is still contributing to that number. Every ban evader, every event multi, every troll multi, every real multi all contributing to that number.

You accounting for 10% being not individual humans is, IMO way too low. I would be more likely to suggest that 1.8 million accounts translates more likely to maybe 300,000 actual humans, the majority of which left before doing much of anything.

Actually, I went and had a look. Story of Snowman and Sunshine Girl has 300,793 accounts with scores logged. SKellybones is 309k...trying to find one higher than that....

So anyway, it looks like out of 1.8 million accounts created, only 1 in 6 actually played a game of FFR. So we're down to 17% of accounts being people who've actually used the site for its function. That drops your dead people count to 467.

Remove multis, event multis, tourney multis, evasion multis, and I'd say from your base of 3045 dead members, it is closer to 350.

Still sad, but a lot less sad across almost a decade.

[noname219]

Re: Dead People From FFR

Didn't really made any research for that 10%. At this point, I was just guessing.

Trip to the Moon has the highest number of players (633,537), so it might be 1 out of 3 people who played a game of FFR. There's eventually more people that didn't played this song yet, or never played any song but created an account anyway. So, I think it's closer to 40-50%, which brings the number probably between 700-900 users.
Once again, these "stats" are far from accurate and were based on very vague numbers...

[kommisar]

Re: Dead People From FFR

I think he meant the activity of the accounts being dead, not the person in question haha

[PaperclipGames]

Re: Dead People From FFR

The calculation is not very accurate. If you take 0,025% of all dead people in 2003 and then again in 2004, you're counting the ones who died in 2003 twice - and in the end of this calculation, up to 11 times. Not to mention, people registered a long time ago have bigger odds to have died by now, since multiple years have passed, each of which they could have died in.

There's a chance of 0,025% of someone on this board dying in any year, so a chance for someone to stay alive one year is 99,975%, and for a person to stay alive for n years in a row is thus (99,975%)^n.
I will copy your list of registered people and calculate with that.

2003 = 2,000 members, of which 0.99975^9 = 0,9972 is alive, which is 1996, so 4 of 2003-registered people have died by now.
2004 = 5,000 new members, of which 0.99975^8*5000= 4990 alive today, so 10 of 2004-registered people have died by now.
2005 = 343,000 new members, of which 0.99975^7*343,000 = 342,400 alive today so 600 have died, so 618 total.
2006 = 350,000 new members, of which 0.99975^6*350,000 = 349,475 alive today so 525 have died, so 1,143 total.
2007 = 400,000 new members of which 0.99975^5*400,000 = 399,500 alive today so 500 have died, so 1,643 total.
2008 = 300,000 new members of which 0.99975^4*300,000 = 299,700 alive today so 300 have died, so 1,943 total.
2009 = 200,000 new members of which 0.99975^4*200,000 = 199,800 alive today so 200 have died, so 2,143 total.
2010 = 80,000 new members of which 0.99975^3*80,000 = 79,940 alive today so 60 have died, so 2,203 total.
2011 = 55,000 new members of which 0.99975^2*55,000 = 54,973 alive today so 27 have died, so 2,230 total.
2012 = 45,000 new members, of which 0.99975*45,000 = 44,989 alive today so 11 have died in 2012, so 2,241 total.