Re: TWG XLV: Let's Play Danmaku Detective Game!
I'm underage.
Reimu and Marisa too maybe (and maybe Sakuya) but they get to be teenagers which makes the only people who actually care crazy conservative crackers.
Everyone else is like 423762372881 years old.
Anyway, I believe that the strongest use of the lottery guard at this moment is to simply have everyone pick themselves. If everyone has a single guard choice assigned to them, then the wolves have a 5% chance of hitting a guarded player (regardless of whom they choose), and negating their pick. The wolves will probably assume that lottery guard choices will pile up on stronger players, and thus avoid those players; this means that every lottery guard pick on a player that the wolves will avoid is a wasted pick, and thus lowers the chance of a successful guarding happening during the night. Thus, the highest chance of a successful guard occurs when the lottery picks are spread out amongst the players, rather than concentrated on obvious picks.
And the easiest way to spread out these picks is to simply have everyone select themselves. It is what I intend to do tonight, unless someone can give a good argument against this line of thought.
Of course, this means that I am valuing a successful guard pick over the life of a potentially strong player. Indeed, I believe that any additional play time the humans get from a successful guarding (as the consequence of that is a wasted wolfing and End of Game (EoG) for the wolves being pushed back) is worth more than the possible contribution of any specific player. History has shown that any player, no matter how esteemed and supposedly brilliant, can really suck hard-core in any given game. I've done it before, and so has everyone else. More time for the humans to figure things out is more likely to help us out than slight chance of a brilliant contribution from a specific player.
Things might change in the future, when we have more info to go on (seerings, psychicings, wolf killings, lynchings, long-ass poorly constructed posts, godknowswhatelseinthisgameofanythingevercouldbeinit). For now, I see nothing better to do.
Also, this game is going to require people to actually THINK FOR THEMSELVES. Anyone that comes out as any role could easily be a wolf, and no one will be able to raise an objection to it (remember, there could be two seers!). Alliances will be difficult to form, and finding anyone you can trust absolutely is going to be nigh impossible. So I implore you all - think for yourself, and don't just blindly follow the will of whatever leaders might appear.
I'm underage.
Reimu and Marisa too maybe (and maybe Sakuya) but they get to be teenagers which makes the only people who actually care crazy conservative crackers.
Everyone else is like 423762372881 years old.
Anyway, I believe that the strongest use of the lottery guard at this moment is to simply have everyone pick themselves. If everyone has a single guard choice assigned to them, then the wolves have a 5% chance of hitting a guarded player (regardless of whom they choose), and negating their pick. The wolves will probably assume that lottery guard choices will pile up on stronger players, and thus avoid those players; this means that every lottery guard pick on a player that the wolves will avoid is a wasted pick, and thus lowers the chance of a successful guarding happening during the night. Thus, the highest chance of a successful guard occurs when the lottery picks are spread out amongst the players, rather than concentrated on obvious picks.
And the easiest way to spread out these picks is to simply have everyone select themselves. It is what I intend to do tonight, unless someone can give a good argument against this line of thought.
Of course, this means that I am valuing a successful guard pick over the life of a potentially strong player. Indeed, I believe that any additional play time the humans get from a successful guarding (as the consequence of that is a wasted wolfing and End of Game (EoG) for the wolves being pushed back) is worth more than the possible contribution of any specific player. History has shown that any player, no matter how esteemed and supposedly brilliant, can really suck hard-core in any given game. I've done it before, and so has everyone else. More time for the humans to figure things out is more likely to help us out than slight chance of a brilliant contribution from a specific player.
Things might change in the future, when we have more info to go on (seerings, psychicings, wolf killings, lynchings, long-ass poorly constructed posts, godknowswhatelseinthisgameofanythingevercouldbeinit). For now, I see nothing better to do.
Also, this game is going to require people to actually THINK FOR THEMSELVES. Anyone that comes out as any role could easily be a wolf, and no one will be able to raise an objection to it (remember, there could be two seers!). Alliances will be difficult to form, and finding anyone you can trust absolutely is going to be nigh impossible. So I implore you all - think for yourself, and don't just blindly follow the will of whatever leaders might appear.
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