TWG XLII: Raiders of the Temple of the Last Crusade

[roundbox]

Re: TWG XLII: Raiders of the Temple of the Last Crusade

In before insta-phantom.

It seems as if DBP is well screwed. But here's how I see it.

There are two possible situations here.
One: DBP, angered at the situation decides to wolf FoJaR. 'Nuff said.
Two: The wolves decide to get together and frame DBP of being a wolf, and decide to kill the one person who was originally conflicting with him.

Either way, DBP would be in the same position as he is now.

I told you I would sit back and watch, and I'm keeping to my promise to let iggy's plan fall through. To keep myself from phantom, Kilga. I'm with you on this one, Kilga. So I didn't bandwagon DBP. I'm only voting for you to avoid the ominous phantom in the chance that DBP got insta'd in the case I waited to vote.

[DiscoBobbyPARANOiA]

Re: TWG XLII: Raiders of the Temple of the Last Crusade

Hay guys I gots two perception artifacts.

watch out blues.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG XLII: Raiders of the Temple of the Last Crusade

Hay guys I gots two perception artifacts.

watch out blues.

Now you're just pissing me off.

Vote change to DBP. If you're seriously asking for a lynch, fine, then take it.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XLII: Raiders of the Temple of the Last Crusade

If you're seriously asking for a lynch, fine, then take it.

Dull he's asking for the lynch, why do you think he came out as a wolf? Think my friend, think.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XLII: Raiders of the Temple of the Last Crusade

I'm going to be even more bold and ask if the decipherers and thieves want to get in on this, that they come to me also.

I could use a few more insurance agents on the bling bling.

If i can find these people, I may just let disco go and not worry about the artifacts, I would be very interested in knowing where they show up and how willing people would be to reveal them back to me.

I could say that if you get a perception, and I somehow get it from you that you're be lynched if you don't reveal it but no one has any real hardcore reason to come to me unless we get really desparate. But I do want to know where they would go IF they were to be lost.

If every single person would agree to letting me know where the perceptions and deceptions were, then I won't take the risk of disco getting use of the artifacts. But I would need even more support from the rest of the blues in order to carry this out.

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XLII: Raiders of the Temple of the Last Crusade

I was bored so I ran some DBP-gets-lynched numbers. These probabilities are based on the assumptions that nija was not a wolf (if he was the odds are even better for us) and that we only care where an artifact goes and not what it does. (For those of you interested in probability/combinatorics, this is a standard identical objects to distinct recipients situation solvable with the multichoose function.)

There are 364 possible artifact distributions. 165 of them (45.3%) see the humans getting all three. 135 of them (37.1%) see the humans getting two and the wolves getting one. 54 of them (14.8%) see the humans gettin one and the wolves getting two. The final 10 (2.7%), obviously, see the wolves getting all three.

If DBP is telling the truth about the perception artifacts and we don't lynch him he'll get two shots at blues in that one night. If we do lynch him, there's an 82.4% chance the wolves don't get two artifacts back to use and thus would need at least two nights to match that output (three if they don't get to use them right away - does the redistribution happen immediately upon death so that whoever gets them may use them that same night?). Given that, unless iggy has something huge up his sleeve that I haven't thought of (only thing I CAN think of is if the unknown is a vigi artifact), I think lynching DBP is the best way to go.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XLII: Raiders of the Temple of the Last Crusade

Kilga, when have you known me to NOT have something up my sleeve? XD Believe me, there are benefits to doing it the other way but many of those details are classified as of yet.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XLII: Raiders of the Temple of the Last Crusade

day ends tonight soooooooo the longer people wait, the harder it will be to make anything effective.

[Stella!]

Re: TWG XLII: Raiders of the Temple of the Last Crusade

Alright well, for the record, I think Iggy's plan is good. It's probably best that we try and get the artifacts in our hands for sure instead of just by luck and hope. (because although the numbers are in our favor, it doesn't mean it's good to let even one artifact slip back to the wolves.)

I guess I'll just vote for Jurs for now. So I don't get a phantom? Just because no one has, right? I really hope no one has..

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XLII: Raiders of the Temple of the Last Crusade

I've decided it's not worth the risk of the blues' lives to keep disco alive and reclaim perception artifacts.

I mean I don't know where the decepticons are so the perceptions won't be as great an asset if I don't know where they are. Plus it's only day2 and I'm sure they will reappear somewhere along the line. If not by tomorrow at the earliest, then by the next day I'm sure.

So stoic, Initiate code 66 please.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XLII: Raiders of the Temple of the Last Crusade

This still does not mean insta disco btw.... I have other plans (hence the calling in of stoic).

[talisman]

Re: TWG XLII: Raiders of the Temple of the Last Crusade

what? are you using like a one-time artifact or something?

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XLII: Raiders of the Temple of the Last Crusade

No, what I thought was gonig to happen isn't.

Do what you will to disco, he's of no use to me now.

disco

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG XLII: Raiders of the Temple of the Last Crusade

>_>

DBP

[mead1]

Re: TWG XLII: Raiders of the Temple of the Last Crusade

DBP

As much as I hate to fall back into the blind follower role, there it is.