TWG XXX - Objection!

[talisman]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

some more complication to what I already posted:

in case a member of the alliance is subverted (aka made into a witness), more than one member should be given the key, but with a specific order maintained for who posts with it (we wouldn't want two people coming out).

also this defends against wolfings of alliance members.

[GuidoHunter]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

Okay, so assuming the idea of going after witnesses is all fine and dandy, how are we supposed to discern who's a witness over anyone else? With wolves, voting patterns are the same and they have agendas that can be deduced, but witnesses have no extra knowledge (unless the prosecutor reveals information, which I find unlikely) and no agenda since they're only worried about their own hide rather than a teammate's, too.

The prosecution team is a formidable opponent and needs to be kept in check, but it seems to me that we can only get lucky with a wolfing of a witness or a presumed wolf turning out to be another (or the prosecutor, in the best case).

Okay, I say that, but now I realize that the liable-to-stay-alive factor comes into play, too. So, we either look for wolves like normal and hope for the best, or we, say, alternate lynches between wolves and possible witnesses. During that time, the wolves will probably go for possible witnesses (Tass would have been a good addition to the prosecution or the humans), too, thus increasing the possibility of witness deaths. Then again, though, because of this idea, those who are more prone to dying become those who are more prone to live.

Now on to talisman's plan. Could you explain better the point of the code? I mean, I realize how it's good for revealing a trustworthy member of an alliance, but how is it different from the seer just telling these people whom he's seered. If they have a key, they can crack the code, and there's no way for the seer to do something in the event of a wolfing, so they can always know who the seerings are. Also, it would take two game days to set up the failsafe, in which time one of the seerings could have been subverted. What then? That wouldn't be a problem if one of the seerings was the MW, but if it were a human, the now-witness could easily throw a wrench into things.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Kefit]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

Even if the witnesses know they are witnesses, they still have the same goal when voting - to kill the wolves. There is a very real possibility that they will revert back to humans at some point in the game, and if this happens, they will want to be in as good as possible of a position to win. Furthermore, the wolves present the biggest threat to the prosecution team. Since witnesses don't count as humans when checking for the #wolves=#humans wolf win condition, the game is much easier for the wolves to win than ever before. If the prosecution team wants to win, then they need to make sure that the wolves don't win first. The only reason that witnesses would ever want to knowingly lynch a human is if there is one wolf left, and they want to prevent a human victory. Needless to say, we are not yet at that point in the game.

So to make it clear, as of right now, witnesses are completely harmless, and will have little, if any change in their activity from if they were a normal human.

We need to go after the prosector. He presents even more of a threat to us than the wolves right now, since his presence effectively adds one wolfing every night (ie we lose an additional human every night thanks to him). Nailing a wolf would be nice, but nailing the prosecutor cuts all our future losses in half. We need to get him, and we need to get him soon. Otherwise we are screwed.

So where do we start with this? Well, the prosecutor is going to choose someone he can count on living. I don't know what recent games have been like, but if I go by games from back when I played often, I certainly wouldn't pick Tass - he is far too susceptible to wolfings. He may survive the first night, but I wouldn't place my bets on him getting past night two (which would be necessary for a prosecution win). This means that the witness is probably still alive right now, and is probably a medium profile player, or someone who usually survives late into the game, regardless of win record. As I said, I dunno what recent game history has been like, so hopefully someone can fill this line of thought out a bit more for me.

This leaves us with an important question: will the prosecutor find it in his best interests to possibly risk his identity in an effort to help his first witness survive? Well, the earliest that the prosecution can win is the end of day 3. Each witness death will knock this back by either one or two days. So if the first witness is lynched day one, then the earliest the prosecution can win is end of day 4. If either witness is lynched on day two, then the prosecution team cannot win until end of day 5.

Now let's take a look at the wolves. Assuming no witnesses are touched, then the wolves can win as early as the end of day 3. Fairly unlikely, but still a very real, and rather frightening possibility, especially since the wolves will specifically not want to go after witnesses. If a member of the prosecution team dies, then the wolves can win end of day 4, and will win before the prosecution team does.

I'm thinking that the prosector won't worry much about keeping today's witness alive, but from tomorrow on every witness death will knock back his plan by a full two days, placing him behind the wolves in the race for the win. What does this mean? Starting tomorrow, we have to look for anyone actively working to prevent the lynch of another player. Early in the game, while we still have very little evidence to go off of, we don't have a legitimate reason to try and protect others. The prosecutor does. Let's look out for this.

Of course, this will be tricky if the seer is forming an alliance. Luckily for us, iggy has come out as the seer, so he will be able to provide a voice for any alliance he might make. That being said, if iggy is not the seer, then we need the real seer to come out NOW. If we see cooperation past day 1, we had better be able to attribute it to trustworthy player, or we will need to assume that it has something to do with the prosecutor.

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

wow that was awesome, welcome back kefit i missed you and everyone else i feel so old-school awesome, btw is anyone else gonna claim to be the seer?

[Kefit]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

Oh, and just to make it clear, the wolves DO NOT want to kill witnesses. If no witnesses die, then wolves win at end of day three, before the prosecution does. If witnesses do die, then the wolf victory is pushed back by an equal number of days as the number of dead witnesses, meaning that the wolves need to survive additional lynchings.

This also means that the wolves very much want to keep the prosecutor alive, at least as long as all three wolves are around. A living prosecutor means witnesses means less humans, which is purely good for the wolves who are ahead in the race for victory by default. This will make lynching the prosecutor even more difficult if we mange to figure out who he is.

*sigh*

I really don't see this game ending in anything other than a wolf victory at this point >_>

[lightdarkness]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

I'm very puzzled by TPS's vote, because when he IM'd me, it seemed to me that he was trying to be helpful to gather information, not to attempt to lynch me.

PS: lol hi TWG.

[GuidoHunter]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

Well, the earliest that the prosecution can win is the end of day 3. Each witness death will knock this back by either one or two days. So if the first witness is lynched day one, then the earliest the prosecution can win is end of day 4.

Not that it changes the message much, but the prosecution can't win before the end of Day 4. Day 1 and Day 2 (technically nights, but whatever) he gets his witnesses. They need to stay alive together for two total days: Days 3 and 4. And, the wolves can't win as early as Night 4, because in the best case scenario for them, Night 4 will result in three wolves and three humans, not a win. However, if a human is lynched on Day 4, they'll win even if the end of Day 4 marks the victory condition for the prosecution.

So, if four humans are lynched on Days 1-4, game over, wolves win. Three humans and a wolf, game over, prosecution wins. After that, it gets easier for the humans, because either a member of the prosecution was lynched or some combination of prosecution members and wolves were.

As such, I don't see the prosecutor coming out, as every human wants his head.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[GuidoHunter]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

****, I saw where I went wrong. The "technically nights" does matter, after all. Witnesses acquired Nights 1 and 2, and DAY 2 and Day 3 they need to stay alive. Whoops.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[GuidoHunter]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

But still, wolves can't possibly win until the end of Day 4, so they'll need at least one witness to die somehow before they can beat the prosecution. Kefit, you're right in that the wolves don't want the prosecutor to die, but they NEED at least one witness to die in order to win.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Kefit]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

So the first day that a witness is called doesn't count for their two day stand? If so, then the prosecution is even further behind the wolf curve than I thought. This will just make the prosecutor even more desperate to keep his witnesses alive, I suppose.

Anyway, n1 wolfing + n1 witness pick + d1 lynch + n2 wolfing + n2 witness pick + d2 lynch + n3 wolfing + n3 witness pick + d3 lynch = 9 less humans = 3 remaining humans, since the game starts with 12 humans (16 players - prosecutor - 3 wolves). Then wolves = humans during night four, and thus wolves win.

[GuidoHunter]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

Wolves still have to be greater than humans (check nForcer's example in the clarification thread), and there is no n3 witness pick. That's where you were off.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[Kefit]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

So the prosecutor doesn't get to have more than two witnesses at a time? I'd like nforcer to clarify this, as I see nothing about this written in the rules of the game.

And the wolves need a majority now? That is rather bizarre, since wolves have always won by equaling the number of humans at night, before the wolfing. Again, nforcer please clarify this.

[Kefit]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

If both of these are indeed the truth of the matter, then the main change is that the prosecution is now ahead of the wolves in the race for victory. This means that the prosecution is no longer a Good Thing for the wolves, and they will want the prosecutor gone just as much as the humans do.

Gah, it's late and I am tired. I will think about this more tomorrow.

[GuidoHunter]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

So the prosecutor doesn't get to have more than two witnesses at a time? I'd like nforcer to clarify this, as I see nothing about this written in the rules of the game.

And the wolves need a majority now? That is rather bizarre, since wolves have always won by equaling the number of humans at night, before the wolfing. Again, nforcer please clarify this.

The last thing posted in the balance thread:

FINALLY: The prosecutor can have no more than two witnesses at a time. If the prosecutor has two witnesses, and a witness is wolfed, the prosecutor has to wait until the next night to choose another witness.

Wolves have always required a majority during the day to win. Wolves=humans in the day is a game on. If the lynch is a human, wolves have a majority and win.

So, the wolves still want the prosecutor alive to have him take humans out of the equation, but certain witness wolfings will put the prosecution back one day, while other wolfings and any lynching of a witness will upt them back two days. Either the prosecution wins immediately or has a looooong way to go.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[GuidoHunter]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

To clarify the "certain wolfings", the only way to have the prosecution set back by just one day is if Tass were the first witness called, which isn't a very unlikely situation, but the Night 1 pick being wolfed is the only way for that.

Any other witness death sets them back two days.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com