TWG XXX - Objection!

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

You won't be killed for posting, you WILL however be killed for not posting.

1) Where does everyone think we are with witness/wolf/human ratios?

2) What are people's wolf suspects?

3) What are people's human suspects?

4) Any strategies you would like to mention?

5) Who do you think the fake account names were?

6) Comments on how people are relating to each other?

7) AIM conversations you've had?

There's a lot to talk about and there are some things to discuss if you need something to talk about. Don't send your answers to me, post them let people discuss them.

[talisman]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

8) who here uses trillian besides nick?

just so I can nail down something that's been bothering me.

[Wilkin]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

I'll respond to the subjects which I have to most information about:

1) With at least 2 green wolfings (including witnesses, one wolfing excluded in the case of the guardian), and the lynching of three more people , I figure at least one of the witnesses has been hit. By the end of Day 1, there was a about an 11% chance (because of the wolves' successful kill, the lynch, and assuming a witness was even successfully called) that a the called witness was killed. By now, the combinations of situations are too numerous and complicated to be of any help, but it can be assumed that the chances of a witness death steadily increase, especially if two are called, though the actual numbers aren't gradual enough to be of any comfort:

Assuming two witnesses are alive today, then we have a 20% chance of lynching one (or a 22% chance of one being wolfed, 30%/33% if you include the Prosecutor). If they manage to survive until Day 4, then there's still a 38% chance of taking out any member of the Prosecution by lynch-time, ensuring that they're probably doomed. The only problem is being able to hit these numbers. The worst case scenario is that we'll be stuck with that 38% by tomorrow, in which a little better than a one in three shot doesn't sound too bad.

Where I actually think we are, though, is somewhere in the middle. One of the numbers has probably hit, but we won't have any way of knowing unless the game ends Night 4.

2) Hans' total of one, maybe two posts in the last decade is really screaming out something. Either his mind is slipping and he's forgetting to do ANYTHING, or else he's playing an inactive wolf (or Prosecution, in this case) role, hoping to bank on his repuation for inactivity to get him through. Part of me is also thinking he might be doing the same thing as the guardian, just lying low in general. The biggest problem is that I've never played a game with him as a blue or red, and reading some past ones hasn't been helping.

Blah's got something to hide. Refer to my previous post.

5) If Hans is playing the low-laying Prosecutor role, this whole PM business would be the perfect way to hide it. Logically, he'd be one of the last people on my list to do such an outspoken thing, which is why he should probably be one of the first.

As things progress through tomorrow, I'll try and get some more of the subjects covered. Until then, though, I think Hans and Blah should be at the top of the scrutiny list.

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

15 game-related posts since the story was posted? You guys make me sick. You do remember voting is tonight, right?

[HansSky]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

Hi. Okay, so I just spent the last hour and a half reading through the thread, and came away with a few things.

Guido made a few posts(Day 1 I believe) in the wee hours of the morning. Granted, it wasn't THAT late, but it was around 2:30 for him. Simply put, anyone who's willing to spend that kind of time thinking strategy on his own is almost certainly human.

Blah has been acting identical to last game, although I'm not really sure what this means. His posts have been meaningless, and has been bandwagoning onto other people's ideas. This would most likely point to wolf, but I don't find it difficult to picture him doing this as just a lazy human as well.

Meh. Bell. More later.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

I'm going to put a vote down on LD because I highly doubt he's human, and because Hans just posted. Subject to change as I talk to more people today.

[Wilkin]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

Well, I have a predicament.

I probably won't be around for the rest of the day, due to classes and such. I only have about 20 minutes before that all starts, so I'll make my vote now:

Blah. Nothing has diverted my beliefs from what I've already posted about him. While Hans said he could attribute it to him being a lazy human, the danger of us letting him go could very well lead to the same fate as last game. If I had to put him on anything, it'd be the Prosecutor.

While I still have my minor suspicions on Kilga and Hans, Blah has me the most worried at the moment. If I do manage to get back before lynching, I'll read up on the thread and perhaps reconsider.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

I said blah way back on Day 1, and then I eased off of him because of the following conversation. Although I had much less reason to be suspicious of blah then than I do now, go figure.

1:42:25 PM mastr414: hey
1:42:28 PM mastr414: so here's the deal, ok?
1:42:42 PM insanelikeafish: yeah
1:42:51 PM mastr414: ok so i give you all the money to fly to oregon to see your wife
1:43:08 PM mastr414: and then like in the old days, as your lord, which i must be if i'm financially backing it all, I get to sleep with her first
1:43:16 PM mastr414: deal?
1:43:30 PM insanelikeafish: that sounds more than reasonable
1:43:35 PM mastr414: excellent!
1:43:51 PM insanelikeafish: hahahaha
1:44:07 PM mastr414: but seriously now, i'm no wolf
1:44:12 PM mastr414: and i'm no prosecturo nor witness
1:44:41 PM insanelikeafish: that's quite the claim
1:44:53 PM insanelikeafish: why do you care if i think you're not human?
1:45:22 PM mastr414: because I think you're human
1:45:25 PM mastr414: and thus care
1:45:32 PM mastr414: its always my MO
1:45:38 PM mastr414: i don't give a **** when retards or wolves accuse me
1:45:43 PM mastr414: because that's their purpose
1:46:07 PM insanelikeafish: well you're right haha, which means i shouldn't let you sway my opinion with your wolfy trixy ways = D
1:46:08 PM insanelikeafish: haha
1:46:13 PM insanelikeafish: but yeah
1:46:14 PM mastr414: yups, you caight me
1:46:17 PM insanelikeafish: all i'm saying is
1:46:23 PM insanelikeafish: you were really smooth last game
1:46:25 PM insanelikeafish: really smooth
1:46:28 PM mastr414: yup
1:46:32 PM mastr414: and i haven't been this game
1:46:32 PM insanelikeafish: and i'm seeing traces of it
1:46:35 PM insanelikeafish: right
1:46:36 PM mastr414: not at all!
1:46:41 PM mastr414: i'm being chunky!
1:46:45 PM insanelikeafish: not to the extent you were, but look at some of your first posts
1:46:51 PM insanelikeafish: compare to day 1 posts last game
1:47:00 PM insanelikeafish: borrowing kefit's logic?
1:47:00 PM mastr414: i'm sorry
1:47:02 PM mastr414: you have to understand
1:47:06 PM mastr414: there are sooo many people in this game
1:47:07 PM insanelikeafish: vs borrowing tass's logic?
1:47:09 PM mastr414: that i haven't played with in months
1:47:13 PM mastr414: that i've really missed
1:47:15 PM mastr414: specifically kefit
1:47:20 PM mastr414: he's always been one of my favorite players
1:47:23 PM insanelikeafish: hahaha
1:47:25 PM mastr414: and then he was gone for like over 6 months
1:47:33 PM mastr414: and admit it, everything he said day 1
1:47:35 PM mastr414: was so spot on
1:47:45 PM mastr414: and infinitely better then anyone else ahs ever postulated during day 1 in a long time
1:48:04 PM insanelikeafish: yes, i agree,it really helped
1:48:18 PM mastr414: that's different then me trying to coddle Tass
1:48:24 PM mastr414: knowing he'll let his ego cloud his judgement
1:48:26 PM insanelikeafish: it basically simplified teh human cause
1:48:32 PM insanelikeafish: i see
1:48:50 PM insanelikeafish: you'll notice in my post
1:49:01 PM insanelikeafish: that i really don't have as many wolf suspicions as i should
1:49:12 PM insanelikeafish: i usually like to have at least 4
1:49:33 PM insanelikeafish: i only really have 3 real suspicions for wolves, most of my suspicions are for the prosecuting team
1:49:37 PM mastr414: yup
1:49:41 PM insanelikeafish: which sucks, because I think our focus should be on the wolves
1:50:00 PM mastr414: its why i juts voted tps
1:50:06 PM mastr414: its like so obviosu that he should die
1:50:12 PM insanelikeafish: hahaha
1:50:13 PM insanelikeafish: oh good
1:50:23 PM insanelikeafish: well let me cut a deal with you
1:50:27 PM insanelikeafish: you seem like a reasonable man
1:50:31 PM mastr414: I am
1:50:54 PM insanelikeafish: out of all my suspicions, left as they are now, i will act on my suspicions of you, last
1:51:00 PM mastr414: fair
1:51:03 PM insanelikeafish: because what you've said just now
1:51:05 PM insanelikeafish: makes a lot of sense
1:51:10 PM mastr414: yup
1:51:36 PM insanelikeafish: although you know i'll confirm it with kefit ; )
1:51:42 PM mastr414: yup
1:51:44 PM mastr414: poor kefit
1:51:49 PM mastr414: i think he went through a span
1:52:01 PM mastr414: of 4 or 5 consecutive night 1 or 2 wolfings
1:53:35 PM insanelikeafish: reminds me of hans
1:53:38 PM mastr414: yup
1:53:57 PM insanelikeafish: i haven't read your post where you voted tps
1:54:02 PM insanelikeafish: but both kills fit
1:54:09 PM mastr414: yup
1:54:10 PM insanelikeafish: couple with the pm
1:54:14 PM insanelikeafish: coupled*
1:54:22 PM mastr414: i mean what wolf would offer to buy your plane ticket
1:54:26 PM mastr414: that should be the strongest evidence

Edit for italics.

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

tps how is he still alive? there's been so much bullcrap pm's etc, clearly he's some kind of awful scary role

[talisman]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

so yeah-

me-human
iggy-seer
blah-pretty sketchy for reasons people have said, would have killed tass, probably kefit too? dunno.
tps-caught him flat-out lying to me, granted it was a small lie. lots of pms, he's got to be involved with one of the names.
hans-no posting, still hasn't said why he voted chardish, does that make him a wolf? I dunno, if I were a wolf I wouldn't put a bs vote on a guy already about to die at the end of the day and then not back it up.
ld-either busy with 3rd style or being his normal self.
kilga-could go either way
guido-could go either way
nick-could go either way
fish-could go either way

Also given that we have 3 mystery pm accounts and there are only two groups that would use them (or at least the ones that are in use) that means two of the accounts belong to one of the groups. My guess is that fromthewolves and fromtheprosecutor are the same person/group and prosecutor is different.

Votewise I'd almost rather follow iggy's lead today because he knows so much more about people's roles and whatnot. I'll put in a pledge vote for tps which will become a real vote if I really disagree with iggy's reasoning or something else comes up.

[Kilgamayan]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

I'm terribly sorry for this day's activity. I can only blame it on school. I didn't really think it would drag me away from this game as much as it has.

As it stands I'm stuck between Tps and blah, and without ample time in my schedule to really take a look back and try to find something outstanding for either of them (or to look for anyone else) I'll swing toward Tps because of the lying to talisman thing.

Trust me when I say this will not happen again, the major factor into my focusing on school will be done Thursday night.

[Wilkin]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

Hey, I managed to get back.

After reading Fish's convo with Blah, I am going to do some reconsidering, though I still stand by my previous posts. I have about a half hour until I have to leave for pretty much the rest of the [game] day, so any change in my vote would happen soon.

[talisman]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

hmm I think I left wilkin off my list. he's 50/50 too for me.

my greatest fear right now is that the wolves are all the 50/50 people just sort of hanging low making their voices heard whatever. that's why I really want to see what iggy does as he probably has a better idea who among them are what.

[GuidoHunter]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

Sorry for my inactivity, too. Last week of school is always a bitch.

As for my suspicions, I'm still wary of blah like I said earlier, but another one I've been hanging on to is talisman. I'm not exactly sure what he is, but I've felt this entire game that he's special, in some way. Possibly one of three wolves, possibly the prosecutor or an early witness, and maybe even the guardian, but I'm leaning against that.

In fact, in a convo I had with iggy on Sunday:

Iggy911Mc (9:12:22 PM): if you dont mind id like to look at your top three wolf list whenever you get a chance
ElSoyokaze (9:13:49 PM): In the middle of GW right now. I'll be sure to after I log.
ElSoyokaze (9:37:03 PM): Okay.
ElSoyokaze (9:37:34 PM): Well, I think blah, talisman, and Tps have been acting most out of the ordinary, meaning they're the prosecutor, guardian, or a wolf.
ElSoyokaze (9:37:45 PM): I have little to no doubt that Afro was a wofl.
ElSoyokaze (9:37:47 PM): wolf even.
ElSoyokaze (9:40:05 PM): There's really nothing to come of Hans, LD, or nick, as they're being silent, although it's expected of the last two, so if there's a wolf in those three, it's probably Hans.
ElSoyokaze (9:40:35 PM): Or the prosecutor, since he really doesn't need to do anything actively this game...

But now, I figure talisman and Tps aren't on the same team. Going back to that convo with Tps, I can only imagine that talisman's trying to use that lie against Tps, even though it seems the whole setup was from a human. Wolves don't try to trick humans like that. In fact, it's the other way around. Plus, what would he have to gain from that convo as a wolf? Nothing, but it did stir conversation, as Tps is wont to do, whether with fake PMs or strange chats.

So, I would put blah and talisman atop my wolf list, and LD atop my prosecution list. He doesn't have to do anything if he's the prosecutor and is one of the ideal witness choices. As far as humans go (besides iggy), I'd say Fish,Wilkin, and Hans, though I've got nothing on Hans besides a gut feeling. I'm usually suspicious of him each game, but not this one. Kilga and nick could go either way for me.

--Guido

http://andy.mikee385.com

[nickadeemus]

Re: TWG 30 - Objection!

Okay I was going to make a post earlier about Hans and his inactivity, but that's been done to death already. Though there is one new thing about that I can add: Instead of just claiming a random or gut-feeling vote, he said he had some reasoning (something I've done previously as a wolf). Since Chardish already had some votes, it was a good way to slip in an extra vote without causing too much suspicion at the time. Though, now it's come back to bite him because he hasn't followed up with anything. Hans will most likely get my vote with the way things are going today because I feel there's a good chance he's an inactive wolf, and the longer we wait to hear something that says otherwise from him, the closer they get to victory.

I don't remember playing with blah much, if at all, but something definitely seems weird about all of his posts this game. On that same note, I haven't been around for many of TPS's crazy antics, but with the GB post from one of the mystery accounts, it doesn't feel like his type of humor. Someone like talisman, fish, or kilga are just as capable and fit the style, to me.