TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

so for some reason my aim died and won't let me sign back in. Anyway, here's a convo with tass wherein we discuss this kill and implications thereof:

TasselFoot (5:47:13 PM): ballsy move dude.
stressreliefball (5:47:39 PM): check this
stressreliefball (5:47:44 PM): I totally called that
TasselFoot (5:47:54 PM): because you did it?
stressreliefball (5:48:01 PM): no I didn't do it
stressreliefball (5:48:09 PM): in fact I was talking with fish about it earlier today
TasselFoot (5:48:14 PM): so fish did it.
stressreliefball (5:48:17 PM): maybe
stressreliefball (5:48:22 PM): I'm about to post the log
TasselFoot (5:48:42 PM): this completely goes against the n00bish wolves theory...
stressreliefball (5:48:46 PM): yeah it does
stressreliefball (5:49:01 PM): although iggy did argue in last postgame
stressreliefball (5:49:09 PM): that desparate situations could call for desparate moves
stressreliefball (5:49:13 PM): as I recall
TasselFoot (5:49:18 PM): this was an intelligent and well calculated attack made out of desperation and knowledge that a guard doesn't hurt at all
stressreliefball (5:49:48 PM): well let me post this log
TasselFoot (5:51:29 PM): you, me, fish, blah.... iggy? i don't think many people would have done this.
stressreliefball (5:51:48 PM): that sounds about right
stressreliefball (5:52:03 PM): blah is a definite possibility... he wasn't on much last night either
stressreliefball (5:52:05 PM): er
stressreliefball (5:52:07 PM): night one
stressreliefball (5:52:15 PM): not last physical night
stressreliefball (5:52:45 PM): posted convo
TasselFoot (5:52:53 PM): yea. the roles were sent out thurs night?
TasselFoot (5:53:00 PM): and day 1 started saturday?
stressreliefball (5:53:07 PM): uh not sure on exact days
stressreliefball (5:53:15 PM): I'd have to look at the thread
stressreliefball (5:54:07 PM): early fri morning it was posted I think and then late sat it started
stressreliefball (5:54:18 PM): so yeah, thurs night, sat start
stressreliefball (5:55:05 PM): the silver lining here of course
stressreliefball (5:55:10 PM): is that hopefully the seer is still alive
stressreliefball (5:55:20 PM): and ap was just acting as a front
TasselFoot (5:56:29 PM): wishful thinking...
stressreliefball (5:56:43 PM): please don't tell me you got ap to have you guarded
TasselFoot (5:56:59 PM): no. never suggested that to him.
TasselFoot (5:57:02 PM): nor would i have.
TasselFoot (5:57:16 PM): i'm expecting to die this game. just a matter of when.
stressreliefball (5:57:16 PM): well... then why wasn't he guarded?
TasselFoot (5:57:22 PM): i have no idea.
stressreliefball (5:57:46 PM): I mean, this is what I hope/think is most likely
stressreliefball (5:57:51 PM): ap got seered night one
stressreliefball (5:58:02 PM): came out to front alliance, as real seer didn't want to, or whatever
stressreliefball (5:58:12 PM): and then had the guardian guard the real seer and not him
TasselFoot (5:58:34 PM): its possible. but why is that we're now expecting the person who comes out to be a fake?
TasselFoot (5:58:53 PM): nobody doubted him yesterday.
stressreliefball (5:59:07 PM): well, I have no clue... maybe the real seer didn't want to be exposed
stressreliefball (5:59:11 PM): or didn't think they could lead the alliance
stressreliefball (5:59:19 PM): or ap pressured the real seer into letting him lead it
TasselFoot (5:59:20 PM): y'know... i've been alliance leader before, and i've been wolfed when i should have been guarded because of stupid ****. more than once.
stressreliefball (5:59:37 PM): oh... maybe ap wasn't ****ting us when he was asking for the guardian to come to him
stressreliefball (5:59:45 PM): maybe the guardian just completely blew it
stressreliefball (5:59:49 PM): kinda doubt that though
TasselFoot (5:59:52 PM): not saying that is what happened. i have no idea what happened. just trying to throw out other scenarios.
stressreliefball (6:00:20 PM): oh lets not rule out tps for someone who might do this
stressreliefball (6:00:31 PM): I can definitely see him trying something like this
TasselFoot (6:00:35 PM): perhaps.
TasselFoot (6:00:43 PM): although last game he didn't attack me.
TasselFoot (6:00:47 PM): and neither did you.
stressreliefball (6:00:50 PM): that's because I was there
stressreliefball (6:00:54 PM): and he did mention attacking you
TasselFoot (6:00:57 PM): hmm
stressreliefball (6:01:01 PM): I was like "dude let's not be dumb"
stressreliefball (6:01:11 PM): jurs brought it up as well, I think
TasselFoot (6:01:15 PM): see, that makes me like you more for this.
TasselFoot (6:01:21 PM): since you were against it last game and were wrong.
stressreliefball (6:01:35 PM): yeah but it's not like it was a big debate
TasselFoot (6:01:41 PM): still.
stressreliefball (6:01:48 PM): it was more like jurs/tps saying "I wonder if tass is faking this"
stressreliefball (6:01:56 PM): and me being like "no... we can't chance that"
stressreliefball (6:02:03 PM): either way
TasselFoot (6:02:06 PM): was like the mead thing 2 games ago... then last game you made a big deal out of giving mead the benefit of the doubt (and, thanks for that...)
stressreliefball (6:02:12 PM): no way do I not send in the kill night one
stressreliefball (6:02:16 PM): and I was definitely on then
TasselFoot (6:02:17 PM): yeah. probably.
TasselFoot (6:02:28 PM): still.
stressreliefball (6:02:45 PM): hell, the same arguments you're making against me could go against you...
stressreliefball (6:03:01 PM): you're just as smart and probably more ballsy when it comes to attacking an alliance leader
TasselFoot (6:03:14 PM): i'm really not, when i'm a wolf.
stressreliefball (6:03:16 PM): and you're just as unlikely to have not sent in the night one kill
stressreliefball (6:03:27 PM): er
stressreliefball (6:03:34 PM): yeah that works
TasselFoot (6:03:34 PM): but, yes. everything i say about you can be said about me. to some extent.
stressreliefball (6:04:00 PM): fish is a wild card here... I really hope I didn't just give him the idea to wolf aperson from our convo
TasselFoot (6:04:20 PM): who knows.
stressreliefball (6:04:27 PM): and I can see fish waiting for a wolf partner night one... I think
TasselFoot (6:04:28 PM): but, tell me something.
stressreliefball (6:04:30 PM): it would depend
stressreliefball (6:04:32 PM): yes?
TasselFoot (6:04:45 PM): what is the purpose of two "humans" discussing the night 2 kill?
TasselFoot (6:04:58 PM): what is the point... humans get no gain from strategizing about it.
stressreliefball (6:05:08 PM): it wasn't strategization at all
stressreliefball (6:05:14 PM): it was me going "who would you kill"
stressreliefball (6:05:17 PM): just to test him out
stressreliefball (6:05:23 PM): and then he returned the question to me
stressreliefball (6:05:31 PM): later we started talking about the voting and whatnot
TasselFoot (6:05:32 PM): then you got into best kills.
stressreliefball (6:05:50 PM): well I mean, wouldn't you have killed you?
TasselFoot (6:05:56 PM): and i'd be damn pissed if your statements to fish wound up getting the seer killed.
stressreliefball (6:05:56 PM): you were an obvious choice
TasselFoot (6:06:03 PM): of course i was the obvious choice.
stressreliefball (6:06:11 PM): I'd be more pissed at the guardian in that case
TasselFoot (6:06:11 PM): its the reason i always live.
stressreliefball (6:06:19 PM): for not guarding the seer, if ap was the seer
stressreliefball (6:06:27 PM): than I would be at me for getting him attacked
stressreliefball (6:06:37 PM): if that turns out to be what happened
TasselFoot (6:06:45 PM): of course.
stressreliefball (6:07:00 PM): fish would also have to be pretty gutsy to just run with my idea too... knowing that I had the convo
TasselFoot (6:07:07 PM): not really.
TasselFoot (6:07:12 PM): no way to prove anything
stressreliefball (6:07:20 PM): well, true
stressreliefball (6:07:24 PM): it could be played off
TasselFoot (6:07:33 PM): unless fish gets seered as a wolf... which sure seems unlikely now.
stressreliefball (6:07:45 PM): I'm still holding out hope the seer is alive
stressreliefball (6:08:08 PM): I mean... ap seems like a likely seering choice to me night one, everything would fit
TasselFoot (6:08:17 PM): ok... so if ap was not the seer... why would he have ap come out for him? n00b factor? but in that case, he just got a 100% confirmed human killed.
TasselFoot (6:08:25 PM): one that is much more useful than most, too.
stressreliefball (6:08:45 PM): well if ap wasn't the seer... I don't think coming out would behoove him
TasselFoot (6:08:54 PM): which, while not as bad as the seer dying... is still really ****ing bad in terms of the alliance.
stressreliefball (6:09:01 PM): because it means both blues are still open targets... unless ap has the seer guarded
stressreliefball (6:09:24 PM): well, if ap wasn't the seer, at least the alliance can still go on privately
TasselFoot (6:09:47 PM): yea... but now with a wasted day. so... best case is this:
TasselFoot (6:10:15 PM): 14 players, seer + guardian + night 2 seer. so 3/14, then 4/12 on day 3, 5/10 on day 4. *sigh*
TasselFoot (6:10:31 PM): at least the good thing is the wolves need to get to day 6 to win.
stressreliefball (6:10:53 PM): if we didn't already get a wolf
stressreliefball (6:10:59 PM): there's a pretty decent chance afro was one
TasselFoot (6:11:14 PM): decent, but not confirmed... unless ap seered afro as a wolf.
TasselFoot (6:11:20 PM): and i figure he would have said something
stressreliefball (6:11:40 PM): well true... but a better chance than normal for a day one lynch
TasselFoot (6:11:51 PM): hopefully
TasselFoot (6:13:19 PM): so you talk to Jurs this game?
stressreliefball (6:13:23 PM): not at all
stressreliefball (6:13:25 PM): heh
stressreliefball (6:13:28 PM): flashback
TasselFoot (6:13:29 PM): LIES!
stressreliefball (6:13:41 PM): she seems a lot different to me though
stressreliefball (6:13:44 PM): which is a good thing
TasselFoot (6:13:56 PM): she hasn't posted much though, has she?
stressreliefball (6:14:02 PM): a couple times maybe?
TasselFoot (6:14:08 PM): right.
stressreliefball (6:14:18 PM): that was par for the course though yesterday
TasselFoot (6:14:39 PM): 101 posts... between 16 players and 1 host... that is over 5 per player.
stressreliefball (6:15:06 PM): yeah ok... so I didn't exactly calculate it
stressreliefball (6:15:18 PM): but I mean... I honestly can't think of what posts for example hans has made
stressreliefball (6:15:29 PM): I wasn't even sure he was in the game til I just checked the list
TasselFoot (6:15:48 PM): i believe that he did not post.
stressreliefball (6:16:31 PM): actually jurs posted like four times page one (using 40 post pages)
TasselFoot (6:16:38 PM): ok
stressreliefball (6:16:51 PM): heh make that 6
TasselFoot (6:16:54 PM): and i noticed her posts seemed different than last game as well.
stressreliefball (6:17:54 PM): and you're right... hans didn't post
stressreliefball (6:19:55 PM): and speak of the devil... jurs just imed me
TasselFoot (6:20:03 PM): wolf buddies.
TasselFoot (6:20:04 PM): i knew it.
stressreliefball (6:24:02 PM): she told me that she thought the wolves were stupid
stressreliefball (6:24:22 PM): because with the seer gone there would be no use for the mark....
stressreliefball (6:24:56 PM): which is pretty illogical, but whatever
TasselFoot (6:26:31 PM): well, not. its not illogical at all. BUT... it is over-valueing the Dog.
TasselFoot (6:26:53 PM): the death of the seer is worth much more to the wolves than the Dog getting seered and lynched.
stressreliefball (6:27:01 PM): right
TasselFoot (6:27:17 PM): it also nullifies the lack of a MW.
stressreliefball (6:27:39 PM): well I mean, clearly the biggest loss is the lack of a public figurehead
stressreliefball (6:27:46 PM): if he was the seer or not
TasselFoot (6:28:37 PM): ehh. that is easy to come by.
stressreliefball (6:29:12 PM): well... not a confirmed one
TasselFoot (6:29:19 PM): *shrugs*
TasselFoot (6:30:55 PM): i've already considered coming out... trying to get the seer to come to me, if they are alive. and the guardian. i won't, for now, though. would put the crosshairs even more on me, with likely little gain.
stressreliefball (6:31:30 PM): yeah I mean... the only one who should come out now, if anyone, would be the real seer
TasselFoot (6:31:36 PM): well, no.
TasselFoot (6:31:47 PM): if the seer is alive.... i could easily see their night 2 seering coming out.
stressreliefball (6:31:54 PM): well, that too
TasselFoot (6:31:57 PM): tell the truth, if we have the theory right.
TasselFoot (6:32:18 PM): that ap was seered night 1. that the night 2 person will NOT be guarded, and is a free kill, if the wolves want.
TasselFoot (6:32:27 PM): but at the same time, the real seer is guarenteed to be alive still
TasselFoot (6:32:31 PM): continueing to seer people.
stressreliefball (6:32:43 PM): right
TasselFoot (6:33:09 PM): an interesting test of game theory.
TasselFoot (6:33:41 PM): will the wolves take the free human? or let the public human figure live in an attempt to hunt down the guardian (and/or seer, through a successful guard).
TasselFoot (6:34:32 PM): and if that is the case.... the only thing the night 2 seer'd is doing is being the public figurehead. but if he has no info to give anyway, there is no point in him coming out.
TasselFoot (6:34:49 PM): so he should let the alliance build behind the scenes and only come out when a wolf has been seered.
stressreliefball (6:34:51 PM): and by default he would have no info to give out
stressreliefball (6:34:57 PM): at least not until tomorrow
TasselFoot (6:34:58 PM): well, right.
TasselFoot (6:35:12 PM): assuming the night 2 seering is human. and assuming ap was not the seer.
stressreliefball (6:35:19 PM): right
stressreliefball (6:35:57 PM): so if the night 2 seering was wolf... does the seer come out now or after having seered a human, and then make that human come out
TasselFoot (6:36:43 PM): not sure.
TasselFoot (6:36:49 PM): that is what i was just thinking.
TasselFoot (6:37:35 PM): i'd say come out... i've always said that a confirmed wolf should never be left alive.
stressreliefball (6:37:50 PM): except it's not necessarily a confirmed wolf this game
stressreliefball (6:37:58 PM): although I grant that we should probably lynch them anways
TasselFoot (6:38:00 PM): for all intents and purposes it is

[MilfeulleSakuraba]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Given his death, I chalk ap calling for the guardian up to trying to get a fake to come out, nothing more.

This had to be calculated, ap knows the value of the seer too much to attempt a second-guess guarding, especially after the precedent set by the previous game of the unwolfable player possibly being wolfable. If he was the seer he would've made the guardian stick to him like glue.

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

man, let me tell you, I would definately have killed AP, its 100 % in my MO... I need to think on this

[Omeganitros]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

*Scratches head*

Well, I like what Kilgamayan said. Guessing that the wolves would be newbies, he probably came out as a seer in hopes that a newbie wolf would try to fake the guardian. I don't think I would have gone after aperson. But then again, he's aperson. Pulling people's legs is not beyond him. In fact, if I were a wolf, I think I would have come out as the guardian, considering the dire situation.

This kill probably opens up the suspect list a lot, from 2 people to several more. But who would both kill aperson, and slip up on Night 1?

[HansSky]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Sorry guys, I've kinda been very distracted lately, plus if I did post, it really wouldn't have been something helpful considering I agreed with the lynching of Afro. But yeah...I'll try and post a lot more now.

In regards to last night, I have to agree with Kilga. If aperson really WAS the seer, then he'd realize his own worth and get himself guarded. However, there is always the possibility that Afro was the guardian, and aperson wasn't lying when he said the guardian had not come to him(I don't see anybody else being the guardian in this scenario). But if this were the case, aperson probably would have let the day go all the way to the end. So we can only draw that etiher aperson wasn't the seer, or he just out thought himself with the guarding, which I suppose is a possibility.

[MilfeulleSakuraba]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

I'm going into a fantasy baseball draft so I'm putting this out here now. It should explain some of the reasoning behind my post.

Chickendude1313: hey, sup
bjstrattonIM: Hi.
Chickendude1313: so wtf happened?
bjstrattonIM: ap died.
Chickendude1313: what's your theory?
bjstrattonIM: Posted.
Chickendude1313: let me check it
Chickendude1313: so, you're assuming that the guardian contacted him
bjstrattonIM: Yes, I believe this was calculated.
Chickendude1313: so, how does this work with the night one kill?
Chickendude1313: or lack thereof
bjstrattonIM: If the guardian didn't get in contact with him then they would've guarded him due to lack of a better target.
bjstrattonIM: I'm not entirely sure.
Chickendude1313: what if the guardian simply, didn't guard anyone due to inactivity or something?
bjstrattonIM: Omega is still high on my suspicion list.
Chickendude1313: so, the wolves WANTED to not kill anyone on night 1
bjstrattonIM: There's that possibility as well, but everyone was around at some point on Day 1.
Chickendude1313: ok, so why would the wolves kill ap?
bjstrattonIM: Because of the precedent set last game.
bjstrattonIM: Like one of talis and Tass said, losing another kill wouldn't hurt too much.
Chickendude1313: ah
bjstrattonIM: So it's worth a shot.
Chickendude1313: yeah, because of the night 1 blunder
Chickendude1313: so basically, they needed to pull out of the hole they dug for night 1
Chickendude1313: do you think the wolves are smart and intentionally dumped night 1, or they are just inactives?
bjstrattonIM: If the wolves were smart on any level they would not have let Night 1 slip by.
bjstrattonIM: As you can see, the lack of a kill produced a ton of suspicion, loads more than an actual kill usually does.
bjstrattonIM: We even got an instalynch out of it.
Chickendude1313: so .... basically, they aren't too smart, but they are smart enough to stab at ap?
Chickendude1313: or risky enough
bjstrattonIM: You know what they say about times, measures and desperation.
Chickendude1313: well, who would do something like that
Chickendude1313: it wouldn't be a conservative player
bjstrattonIM: iggy's nae was tossed around, if I remember right.
bjstrattonIM: *name
Chickendude1313: based on the night one kill, my next target would have been iggy
bjstrattonIM: Omega and iggy are my two guesses at this point.
Chickendude1313: but the night 2 kill is kind of ... confusing me
bjstrattonIM: I'm about 95% sure at least one is.
Chickendude1313: well, we have extra days to use, we could just try both
bjstrattonIM: I'm sure we will.
Chickendude1313: Iggy's fisrt post ... looked confused
Chickendude1313: I posted about it

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

So to reiterate my statements in the Talisman convo...

IF the seer is still alive... come out if you saw a wolf night 2. Otherwise, work behind the scenes with the guardian and your night 2 seer... and have the night 2 seer (or a future one) come out once a wolf is seered.

I still say that we need to operate as if the seer is dead... unless proven otherwise. One concrete train of logic would say ap is NOT the seer... but he DID come out as the seer, and that can't be ignored.

[mead1]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Like everyone else has said, this indicates ap probably wasn't the seer. It also throws a gigantic gear in any idea of mine as to who the wolves are, as I can't really see iggy/psycho pulling this. I'm thinking maybe blah, for inactivity and for having the balls to do something like this.

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Did anyone else get a PM from aperson?

It'd be odd if it was just me, I didn't talk to him at all. I'll guess I'll wait for what you all think before I post it.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

I did not get a PM from ap.

I would imagine those who posted didn't either, or they may have mentioned it?

You sure this isn't another retarded scheme by Mr. Lennon?

[mead1]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Post it, unless it specifically says not to or something...

[chickendude]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

well, when did he send this PM?
Please share
I didn't get one

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Post it if it is clearly fake, like my first guess would say it is...

[nforcer06164]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

I did not get a PM either. And this is all really confusing. I don't think a new guy would go for aperson, seeing as we have a guardian. But, I could see a vet considering reverse psychology and going for him.

I have the feeling that ap probably wasn't the seer. As previously stated, he was probably a front for the real seer. I mean, who's a good night one seering/wolfing? ap ranks high on that list. Plus, ap is far too smart after a discussion with the seer to let him/her come out, putting them in potential danger. Leave himself as a front for the seer, with the illusion of being guarded. If the wolves go for someone else (possibly the real seer), poof, guarding. I have the feeling the real seer is still floating out there.

This still doesn't explain why the wolves DID go for ap. I don't see the logic here, unless they came up with the same theory I have. Still, it was a risky move.

This still doesn't do anything to damage my inactive theory. I have the feeling that a new guy wouldn't have the balls to go for ap, much less figure the reverse psychology behind the whole thing and take the chance. In fact, I don't even think I'd ever give second thought to trying to wolf ap.

But who would? And who also fits into my inactive theory? blah. I know it's an early vote. But the evidence is weighing heavily on him right now, and he's been far too quiet and unhelpful for blah.

Oh, and the fact that he admitted he would go for ap... that doesn't make me think any differently.

[Tps222]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Ugh, I was hoping others got a PM as well, because I can't make heads or tails out of it.

Iggy arm clocks Blah get surrounded by wood when Blah has a black belt in KIR. Scared may remain under the couch, be anti-dangerous.

So far all I can make out is arm clocks, which I assume is watch. Iggy watches blah..?

Why would I be the only one to get this, is it a clever trap set by him to get me lynched or something, knowing I'd post it? I received it around 9 AM this morning. I guess we should decode it, although it depends on his credibility as to what we should do with it :\

PS: A bakery burned down down the street and all cable will be gone for a while, and my internet comes and goes for extended periods of time. I'll do my best to get on.