TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Afro... 1 point, which you seem to ignore... some group of three wolves DID not send a kill in... so, for some reason or another, some group of three wolves FUBAR'D...

now, we've all worked on the 2 possible reaosnings (main ones)... intentionally not sending it in (which we all agree is stupid, and hopefully 1/3 at least of the wolves would have said that)... OR... inactivity forcing the hand of the wolves.

What is more inactive than someone being grounded and completely unable to get online? Nothing. And, as you said... even if you are human, you'll likely be 95% useless.

For me, your post changes nothing. Just a rather unfortunate coincedence if you do turn out to be human.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Yeah, in thinking about it more (even towards the end of my post I realized this), it really is better if you lynch me now. I'd only be a burden on the humans if I were left alive with my low activity and my lack of AIM.

[aperson]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Afro

Guess what, I'm the seer, I can bandwagon all I want.

And to all the people going OH NO APERSON CAN YOU LEAD AN ALLIANCE the answer is yes stfu I can if the guardian ever messages me

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

nforcer I can confirm that psycho tends to not post as much when he's on the chopping block. He did it just this past jTWG. I'm going to re-read the thread and talk to a few people on AIM before I make my vote. If there's a chat going on, I can't join, because I'm on meebo at school (maybe I should download gaim or something...)

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Change to afro. Someone that requests to be lynched gets my vote. The logic on him is just as good psycho, I'll just wait for day 2. Maybe something new will be revealed.

[PsYcHoZeRoSk8eR]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

First off, sorry for being so incredibly inactive. Saturday night = soccer championship + celebrating afterword. Sunday, got up early for soccer (was on the filed by 6) then fell asleep when I got home. The falling asleep was my bad, I had hoped that I could have gotten something done but oh well.

****! I have to leave for school now (i'm on my lunch break). I've been talking to a few people on aim and I'm leaning towards afro. I'll have a more indepth post when I get home from school at about 2.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

(11:33:52) PsYcHoZeRoSk8eR: well now, isn't this interesting...
(11:34:28) insanelikeafish: haha yeah
(11:35:50) insanelikeafish: you know what about afro's response that shows me he's a wolf?
(11:35:57) insanelikeafish: Four: on the off chance that you guys decide to not lynch me, I might as well throw a vote. I'll go with jurs.
(11:36:00) insanelikeafish: no way he would say that
(11:36:03) insanelikeafish: as a human
(11:36:06) insanelikeafish: he would jsut take a phantom
(11:36:16) insanelikeafish: he's just sitting there hoping he doesn't get lynched, knowing he will be
(11:36:31) PsYcHoZeRoSk8eR: hmmm, very good point

Afro, you know you wouldn't care about voting as a human. Two to insta.

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Afro'd

[aperson]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Hey let's try not insta'ing afrobean until the guardian contacts me thanks

[talisman]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Before this instalynch business (which I agree with, mainly) I want to get myself a post in here.

First, tass IMed me asking what I thought about ap coming out since I was the only one to publicly question the idea of the seer coming out, etc. Like I posted earlier, my major concern was that the seer might not be experienced/comfortable/good enough to lead the alliance and not give away other members through incidental posts or something like that. Now that I see it's ap, again like I posted, I'm not as concerned about that at all because I'm confident in ap's abilities. So I think it's a net positive thing that ap came out.

Second, as has been stated many times, the wolves had to have messed up due to inactivity and an unawareness of the 24 hour time limit. There's a couple possibilities (this is going to sort of be a summary mainly for straightening out my own thoughts). One is that it's two vets one noob where both the vets were insanely inactive during that period (ie afro and blah, going off of fish's chart). Another is that it's one vet two noobs, where only the vet was inactive and the noobs were unaware of the time limit and wanted to check in with the vet. Still a third is that it's three noobs (chicken, psycho, iggy) but somehow I doubt that this would be as likely to produce a no-kill since I think both chicken and iggy were on enough during that period and probably wouldn't be as likely to wait for the opinion of psycho as they would be for that of, say, blah or afro. The last possibility, that it's 3 vets, is virtually impossible. Not only are all of the vets basically aware of the 24 hour time limit, they're also all less likely to wait for a third wolf to talk to. Only way it's 3 wolves is if two of them were very inactive and the third somehow forgot about the time limit or something.

Now given fish's chart thing, I think it's fairly clear that at least two of the wolves were on during that time period, unless both afro and blah are both wolves. Therefore probably at least one, likely two of the wolves are newer players. And therefore our field or potential wolves is essentially afro, blah, omega (the most inactive vets) and psycho, iggy, chicken (the newer players). Of those I think afro obviously is suspicious due to his confirmed grounding or whatever and that post. Blah has made some seriously worthless posts this game, which is unlike him as either human or wolf, really. Omega hasn't posted at all that I can remember, and that sort of makes me lean human on him. I know he's been around to moderate and whatnot, plus he's been probably been online, so he's probably seen his pms and had opportunity to be contacted by his fellow wolves... I dunno, I see him as the type to want to post and participate more as a wolf than when not. Psycho I have no read on really. People seem to be jumping all over him for some comments he made in the chat but I'm not entirely sure I buy it. Iggy I think is definitely suspicious, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt since he's been on the defense alot since I pointed out his behavior change and people always seem more suspicious when they're on the defense. Chicken I keep forgetting is in the game. So no real thoughts on him.

And... I was going to go ahead and vote afro here but I guess I'll wait due to ap's request.

[Wilkin]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

The TWG Pre-Insta Leaderboard, brought to you by:



Afro (8) - Tass, Tps, Mead, Jurs, Aperson, Iggy, Fish, Blah
Psycho (1) - Nforcer
Jurs (1) - Afro


Left to vote: Probably won't even matter. You know who you six are.


(If insta does occur, story will come a little after 6)

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Another thing.... that helps give weight to the theory....

Wolves almost 100% talk on AIM. Afro was not on AIM at all since the PMs were sent Friday night. Could someone check SPECIFICALLY at what times Omega was online? I know he is one (like Squeek, for example) who is not often on AIM. As such, the 3rd wolf MIGHT have been in a position where both of his wolf partners were not online... and, going with our theory... if he was a newb, he almost certainly would have waited to talk to at least one of them before sending anything in. Throw in the fact that Sunday morning the PM system went down....

Well, what I'm showing is more evidence against Omega that has not been brought up specifically.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

One final thing....

Wilkin: If at all possible, could you try and make sure that you list the votes in order of who voted first? I know I wasn't first to vote Afro. I was second. Seeing the order helps to figure things out further along down the road... for bandwagoning and whatnot.


Also, I thought about this earlier.... this vote chart will prove to be completely worthless later on. As if Afro is a wolf, the other wolves will likely bandwagon onto him to provide distance... but also might just not vote and wait for insta. At the same time, if he is human, the same thing is true. So, we get an extra day because of the no wolfing... but we lose 1 day of voting patterns because of the gangbang on Afro.

[Wilkin]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Sorry, I got you and Tps switched, but the rest are in order.

You have a very valid point on the voting pattern thing. We'll see how things develop later on, but the imminence of an insta will probably kill any reason for a chart.

For the record, though, I suggest a ban on ever using the phrase "gangbang on Afro" again. EVER.

[chickendude]

Re: TWG XXVIII: Card Sharks (or Wolves, rather)

Another thing.... that helps give weight to the theory....

Wolves almost 100% talk on AIM. Afro was not on AIM at all since the PMs were sent Friday night. Could someone check SPECIFICALLY at what times Omega was online? I know he is one (like Squeek, for example) who is not often on AIM. As such, the 3rd wolf MIGHT have been in a position where both of his wolf partners were not online... and, going with our theory... if he was a newb, he almost certainly would have waited to talk to at least one of them before sending anything in. Throw in the fact that Sunday morning the PM system went down....

Iggy is another person who isn't on AIM that much (from what I've been seeing)

Also:
this post

http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showpost.php?p=591524&postcount=28

by Iggy

He is flip flopping his opinion of nforcer and fish in the post. It seems like he's trying to search for reasons to get rid of the most active players. There basically isn't much evidence in his post, but he comes out in the end saying that afro, nforcer, and fish were his targets.
This also fits in with the bad-wolf mentality that Tps was talking about. If afro is a wolf, then iggy would have been listing 1) Wolf buddy 2) someone he wants to get killed
His entire post there seems wolfy. I have to agree with tps here.

I too could insta afro, but apparently we are all waiting for aperson