TWG VIII (The Matrix Has You) Day 4

[Afrobean]

It seems to me that Alain has yet to be a normal human. I'd say that odds are against him being a wolf again. If I were to guess based on probability of things, I'd say that Alain is most likely a normal human this game. Yes, his actions are suspicious, but I wouldn't define them as wolfy. In other words, we should keep an eye on him, but not lynch him right away.

Either way, if Alain is human or agent, I'd think that the people he lists as human can be trusted as human. My reasoning is this:
If Alain is human:
He would be worthy of trust. Anyone he belives is human, is probably accurate.

If he's a wolf:
He's handing us a decent alliance. A wolf most likely isn't going to put his other wolves in the alliance, just in case they get figured out. Because of this, I'd say it's safe to say that most, if not all, of those Alain trusts as human really are human.

[lightdarkness]

I'll fill in for Chardish here:

THE ROLES OF A PLAYER IN PREVIOUS GAMES IS NOT AN INDICATION OF THEIR ROLE IN PRESENT AND FUTURE ONES.


Too add on to your thoughts, I was thinking also about his thoughts on people and if he is a wolf or human, but we need the psychic to come out and tell 1 or 2 people the results of tomorrow.

[Lupin_the_3rd]

but we need the psychic to come out and tell 1 or 2 people the results of tomorrow.

you seem awful sure of yourself with that whole 'lynching alain' thing...

[lightdarkness]

but we need the psychic to come out and tell 1 or 2 people the results of tomorrow.

you seem awful sure of yourself with that whole 'lynching alain' thing...

During today, I did think he was going to be lynched, but someone has brought to my attention that it can be reversed.

In any case, the psychic is currently important as to validizing alains claims.

[Afrobean]

THE ROLES OF A PLAYER IN PREVIOUS GAMES IS NOT AN INDICATION OF THEIR ROLE IN PRESENT AND FUTURE ONES.

Of course it does't affect future probability. For example of what I mean:

Say you're rolling a dice. Even numbers represent human, and odd numbers represent wolf. Number 1 could be a special human role.

The case of alain would be like this: He rolls a 6. Then a 1. Then a 4. (I don't know the order that he got his roles in, so don't be pissed at me if this is innacurate)

What is the odds of getting those 3 numbers and not getting other numbers in their place? According to what LD said, it's 1/6. It is most definitely NOT 1/6. If I remember my math for probability correctly, it would be a 1/216 that he would get those rolls.

I'm sure this isn't a very good example, but hopefully you got what I meant.

[blahblah18]

no Afro, you're wrong.. considering he already rolled a 6 and then a 1, his chance of getting a 4 now is still 1/6

its like if i flip a coin a million times and they all come heads... even though the probability of flippipng a coin 1 million and 1 times is
1 / 2^1,000,001
its still just a 1 / 2 that the million and first one will be heads.

[Afrobean]

Yes, you're right that his previous roles has nothing to do with his role this game, but listen to this. Imagine that we're having this argument before Alain has even joined one TWG. What would you say would be the probability of him being a wolf two times and a human special job? The chances of that are not that good. Now, all I'm saying that the probability of him being a wolf three times is even more unlikely.

[nforcer06164]

THE ROLES OF A PLAYER IN PREVIOUS GAMES IS NOT AN INDICATION OF THEIR ROLE IN PRESENT AND FUTURE ONES.

Of course it does't affect future probability. For example of what I mean:

Say you're rolling a dice. Even numbers represent human, and odd numbers represent wolf. Number 1 could be a special human role.

The case of alain would be like this: He rolls a 6. Then a 1. Then a 4. (I don't know the order that he got his roles in, so don't be pissed at me if this is innacurate)

What is the odds of getting those 3 numbers and not getting other numbers in their place? According to what LD said, it's 1/6. It is most definitely NOT 1/6. If I remember my math for probability correctly, it would be a 1/216 that he would get those rolls.

I'm sure this isn't a very good example, but hopefully you got what I meant.

I believe that the probability of getting the numbers in that order is 1/216, and getting those three numbers alone is 1/18. Each one individually, though, has a probability of 1/6.

But let me justify the other side a little: say you could flip a coin 50 times, and get heads each time. On your 51st, the chance of getting tails would still be 50%. That means that anyone could be a wolf everytime they play. Although the chances of that happening are astronomical, the odds of its frequency will never change as long as the amounts of what roles people can get, and number of players, does not.

Alain is being more unjustified that any of us. He changed his stance from coming up with strategies to "lure out wolves" to defending himself. What I saw as really setting him off, though, was Jursey's post of the conversation. Now, I'm having this thought in the back of my head that if it was anyone besides Jursey, he wouldn't have gotten so defensive and/or ticked off.

blahblah (12 posts back) may be getting at something about alain and his possible role, but I'm not sure whether to be suspicious, or to heed his thoughts.

[Squeek]

Here's the odds of any person being a role they were before:

Agent - 4/18. = 22%
Psychic - 1/18. = 5%
Guardian - 1/18. = 5%
Mason - 4/18. = 22%

Probability and statistics go out the window when it doesn't matter what the previous numbers gave. It's only good for when you remove something from the equation. Such as, when there are 3 red marbles and three blue marbles and you take one out.

Random.org is the best random number generator in the world. They have formulated an algorithm that nobody else has topped. It is UNREFUTABLY the greatest random generator to date.

Carry on.

~Squeek

PS - No information should be taken seriously in anything I post. I post as a neutral party favoring no role.

[Kilgamayan]

LOL MATH SIDE TRACK ok folks here we go

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The probability of getting one given number three times in a row while rolling one standard die is 1/216.

Break it down easily:

We'll use 3 as an example. The probability of rolling a 3 in one roll of a six-sided die is 1/6, as there are, obivously, 6 total possibilities and only one correct one.

Now, you roll the die a second time. Again, the odds of getting a 3 on that roll are 1/6.

However, combine the first two rolls' possibilities. For each one individual result for the first roll, there are six possible results after the second roll. In 3's case, that would be (3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), and (3,6). Each of the first six possibilities has six additional possibilities attached to it. 6 times 6 is 36.

For the third roll, the same concept applies. Each of the 36 initial possibilities (produced by the first two rolls) has 6 new possibilities attached to it from the third roll. In the end, you have a number of different possible outcomes equal to 36x6, which is 216.

If anyone wants, I can write every single one out, but I doubt we want to see that.

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On a TWG-related note, CStarFlare was a wolf in three consecutive games over at BMS. Never have the mentality of "oh he was a wolf last game he has to be human this game".

[User6773]

The odds of someone rolling a certain number 3 times in a row may be 1/216, but we're not looking at 3 times in a row. We're looking at only one roll. And previous rolls don't influence future roles. Period.

[blahblah18]

Thanks for stopping that, now a post on the game?

[Kilgamayan]

The odds of someone rolling a certain number 3 times in a row may be 1/216, but we're not looking at 3 times in a row. We're looking at only one roll. And previous rolls don't influence future roles. Period.

Sorry I saw math and I was like OMG POUNCE

[Afrobean]

Thanks for stopping that, now a post on the game?

Yea, sorry about bringing that up. We really need to get more posting (relevent posting anyway) here so I can decide who to vote for.

[blahblah18]

yeah, come on Chardish / Kilga, post something relative, eh? .....