TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

[Charu]

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

IT IS NOW DAY 5
You may now post

EoD is on 8/16/19 at 10PM SERVER TIME
Any votes casted at 10:01PM Server Time will NOT be counted

Don't insta me or my game ever again~

[Xelicopter]

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

is that a wrap

[SubaruPoptart]

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

AYYYY!!!! So if Prec was one, who do we think is the other?

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

The lar lynch is free real estate

[SubaruPoptart]

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

SO WAIT: If nobody ended up dying last night, whoever sun and Kayla roleblocked must be the wolf, or the last wolf abstained from their night action.

[SubaruPoptart]

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

setting up a plan of attack for the night actions now:

I've actually never seen this scenario before, and the proof for it is exceedingly long, so if someone asks me for it, I can give it, you'd just have to give me a long time in order to prove that this is the best course of action

this is actually pretty bonkers

[b]KAYLA AND I NEED TO TARGET THE SAME PLAYER TONIGHT[/b[

I am assuming we are lynching precarious after I went back and looked at those subaru reads from the phase before. This plan only has any value if Precarious is a wolf. If Precarious is not a wolf, Kayla and I should do whatever tonight, as should Antori.

Therefore, the only way to extract value from this is for Kayla and I to roleblock the same player (wolves have a really funny outplay and smoke-cloud for cover if we don't)

If there is a nightkill, then that player becomes cleared, unless they are mafia and have been holding onto their strongman kill all this time, which I think is unbelievably unlikely to be the case

so, kayla and I need to figure out who we are both targeting tonight

antori, you should target between kayla and myself tonight
DO NOT SAY WHICH ONE OF US YOU ARE TARGETING

should be the best course of action

and, just repeating this just to be as clear as possible
entirely discard any plans if precarious does not flip red

So Precarious flipped red, explain what's next sun

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

SO WAIT: If nobody ended up dying last night, whoever sun and Kayla roleblocked must be the wolf, or the last wolf abstained from their night action.

I targeted lar, I assume kayla did too since she said she was going to
If the wolves didnt send in their action, that's just fine with me, because town gets an extra lynch
The lar lynch is literally free, is always happening now, and it actually doesnt matter what his alignment is

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

lar
Let's not insta early but this lynch is always happening today

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

I feel alright
The game is in a really good position even if lar isnt the last wolf

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

this day phase has become slightly less B R U H
thank you

Bruh
If only I knew L O L

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

this should be "Xel u shouldN'T claim antori's role

I had it right the first time I'm a doofus yet again

[SubaruPoptart]

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

So if it's not Lar, what's the plan from there tho

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

So if it's not Lar, what's the plan from there tho

Idk
I'm probably super fuckin dead if the game doesnt end with a lar lynch so do whatever the heck u want if that happens

P sure we just win by killing lar tho
Sorry jess, I think I might be mvp this game

[psychoangel691]

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

I did roleblock lar as well

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 188: MAD17, Who's Role Is It Anyway? [GAME THREAD]

now that I'm at home, I'll talk about math a little bit

during the night phase, we had 7 alive.
Now, after the night phase, we still have 7 alive.

The latest a game can get during a day phase is 3 alive. If the game, from this point forward, continues at a normal pace, then town has 3 opportunities to find the wolf.

If, last night, a kill went through, Lar would become confirmed town, but there would be 6 alive, which is 2 opportunities to find the wolf, plus a no-lynch in f4 to force the wolf kill someone who is not clear and bring it to f3.

Both outcomes are good for town; Lar either becomes someone that is always confirmed, or someone that is always lynched.

A no-kill is not a counter that the mafia, who in this example is not lar, has to this because they give town an extra opportunity at killing the mafia and it resolves someone who was always going to be a question mark in lar

this was only possible if kayla and I targeted the same person last night because otherwise, if we target different people, mafia can potentially gain too much from no-killing