TWG CXXX: Hi-Roller's C9++ GAME THREAD

[Cold Kitten]

Re: TWG 130: Hi-Roller's C9++ GAME THREAD

Vote Count
Red Blaster (5) - James May, lurker, tokzic, psychoangel691, YoshL
Funnygurl555 (1) - Red Blaster
tokzic (1) - choof
YoshL (1) - Funnygurl555

Yet to Vote
XelNya, j-rodd123, toxophilis


NOTE: Remember this is the last vote count from before I ended the day phase and modkill happened.

[Funnygurl555]

Re: TWG 130: Hi-Roller's C9++ GAME THREAD

Alright so I'll be real guys, I have no idea how to play games like this. I'm a terrible PR. Maybe I was hoping for a more vanilla game, but from the looks of all of this, that's basically impossible.

So we're going with four wolves, which means that we have three left. We basically have to ignore all the claims since it's really not worth hunting within them.

Players
1. James May
3. lurker
5. funnygurl555
10. XelNya]
13. j-rodd123
14. Toxophilis

I guess I just pulled up a generic list but ok judging from these players here's where I'm at
--

James May You weren't here much this game, but your recent posts have been solid. You're making a genuine attempt at solving the game that I haven't really seen you do ever really. You were seered town by both YoshL and psychoangel so there's a very high chance that that is the case. Willing to ignore you.

Lurker lurker said something about his and my posts being very similar. I kinda agree. You've been here and you've been basically angry at the world but while it sure seems like you've had more of a presence than me you didn't really push onto anything helpful... the entire phase really. I still would be fine with lynching you but yeah

XelNya null

j-rodd123 I found your opinion of YoshL earlier to be a bit weird since you weren't too solid on it. You weren't around for the entire RB thing and then left on some commentary at the end, kinda like what you did with the entire Zenith thing too. It's like you're UTR but I kinda was too so yeah. Going off of POE though I would put you ahead of XelNya.

Toxophilis Okay so was it really a good idea to claim green in a blue-loaded game? It's not like anyone can counterclaim green either until way later in the game. You basically admitted that you're okay with not contributing much to the game either. Is this even UTR play if I'm not the only one who kinda wants to see you contribute if you have the chance?

--

P much Lurker or Tox for today and I could join in on Xel unless one of the "claims" turn to BS I mean I'm very much banking on this but what can we do like what ~3 or so more wolves left right

--

I don't fully believe the claims, especially one-shot claims. It should be like so easy to claim one-shot
And to psychoangel and YoshL, you both checked James May? Of all people? ????????????????????????????????
Going off of what we see now we would have probably ignored him regardless.

I believe choof's claim the most because the RB check was a good idea. I mean, it was. It made sense. But he died anyway. Jeez

--

Okay speaking of that now I'm going to look at the train on RB which a) shouldn't have happened because he was claimed to be checked for crying out loud and b) was way larger than i anticipated

I read that there was five votes on him in the thread: tokzic yoshl psychoangel lurker and james may

Four people here are people who claimed or were checked. That's problematic. The only other person was lurker who put in a spite vote?

This is sketchy as hell. RB shouldn't have been considered for the lynch and I can't believe the town did that, but he probably wouldn't have died if he didn't... -_________-

[Funnygurl555]

Re: TWG 130: Hi-Roller's C9++ GAME THREAD

I said I'm a terrible PR but that doesn't necessarily mean I'm claiming anything *****
I just mean I can't understand what a PR would actually do

[Funnygurl555]

Re: TWG 130: Hi-Roller's C9++ GAME THREAD

I said I'm a terrible PR but that doesn't necessarily mean I'm claiming anything *****
I just mean I can't understand what a PR would actually do

[James May]

Re: TWG 130: Hi-Roller's C9++ GAME THREAD

Yes, the wizard's actions would go through first, if there is a wizard in this setup.



The way I'm reading it, it would be a Mason pair AND either a saint or a good neighbor. I think it's the plus sign that would make the difference, because there's a couple others like that.

Every other one that is either/or in the list doesn't have that plus sign. Such as this one, for example:

x7 = Guardian, Watcher, One-Shot Guardian + Guardian OR Watcher

It wouldn't make any sense for it to be a guardian, watcher, one-shot guardian, and another guardian, OR just a watcher, now would it? Makes more sense for there to be a guardian, watcher, one-shot guardian, AND EITHER another guardian or another watcher.

(just to note, i just picked the first other group I saw like the mason group, it has no significance lmao)

Perfect, just wanted to hear haha.

[James May]

Re: TWG 130: Hi-Roller's C9++ GAME THREAD

And to psychoangel and YoshL, you both checked James May? Of all people? ????????????????????????????????
Going off of what we see now we would have probably ignored him regardless.

Psychoangel's my Mason partner...I basically confirmed the claim rofl. But yeah, it would really help to clear up Tokzic's soft first because since Manti is a ???? at this moment and this would further solve the set-up. Anyhow, I hope that we can at least lul in this whole thing...

[Funnygurl555]

Re: TWG 130: Hi-Roller's C9++ GAME THREAD

Alright I see
Why did YoshL check you though? It just wasn't a good seering

[choof]

Re: TWG 130: Hi-Roller's C9++ GAME THREAD

oh my god that vote count scared the shit out of me I was scrolling too quickly from the top on ny phone and I thought for some god forsaken reason night ended early

[choof]

Re: TWG 130: Hi-Roller's C9++ GAME THREAD

Alright I see
Why did YoshL check you though? It just wasn't a good seering

i dont think yoshl ever gave a reason

[lurker]

Re: TWG 130: Hi-Roller's C9++ GAME THREAD

Lurker lurker said something about his and my posts being very similar. I kinda agree. You've been here and you've been basically angry at the world but while it sure seems like you've had more of a presence than me you didn't really push onto anything helpful... the entire phase really. I still would be fine with lynching you but yeah

i think getting RB to kill himself was helpful but eh, different strokes

[choof]

Re: TWG 130: Hi-Roller's C9++ GAME THREAD

i think getting RB to kill himself was helpful but eh, different strokes

yeah killing a vigilante was a great idea you insufferable fuckface

[James May]

Re: TWG 130: Hi-Roller's C9++ GAME THREAD

Okay, so I think I may have figured out the Wolf Team compilation.

Going back to the mention of the letters, From what we currently know, we have AT THE MINIMUM 8 letters confirmed (holding up on the Choof+yoshl claim and if Manti was indeed the dead tracker that I'm beginning to suspect on)

IIIIMMKK -> 8 letters

From that we can look at the list and see that we have the following wolf team for pick # 8:

8 Wolf Seer, Wolf Roleblocker, Wolf x2

This would bring on another interesting scenario: What if Manti was the full Seer that died and Choof is the Wolf Seer? This sounds far fetched as we can pull up the other picks:

9 Master Wolf, Wolf Roleblocker, Wolf Kidnapper, Wolf
10 Master Wolf, Wolf Seer, Wolf Roleblocker, Wolf Lancer
11 Master Wolf, Wolf Seer, Wolf Roleblocker, Wolf Kidnapper

We can still see for a fact that 3/4 combinations within the picks of between 8 and 11 letters that there is a Wolf Seer in that set-up, 4/4 having a Wolf Roleblocker, 3/4 for Master Wolf, 1/4 for a Wolf Lancer and 2/4 for a Wolf Kidnapper. It would have made sense for Choof to come out as a full seer around the same time that Manti died (I think Choof came out at the start of the phase but I'll double check on that) despite having 0 Wolf/SK checks on him and to change the words around to make it come out like an actual seering on Red Lobster. Of course I may sound like some nuthead doing some Conspiracy Theory but I'm just feeling absolutely baffled at the moment to be fair. The set-up calls for it if Manti was indeed one of the I's. And truth to be told, if I can fully figure out what both Tokzic and Manti is, I could lul in the combination.

Now for the probability of SK:

The highest chance of SK to be in the game is if it's in Tier 4 with a Threshold of 50 (which gives it a 75% chance of it appearing if I'm reading this properly). That would mean that we'd needed to have 9 letters in this. Which would also mean that the SK would get the following: Tracker AND Watcher Immunity, 1-Shot Omnibane + 2 Variable Powers, and those two variable powers could be:

Investigation Immunity: If you are the target of any seer ability, the result will not find any incriminating evidence. You will behave as if you are a Vanilla Human. This only deters direct investigation; you can still be Tracked or Watched, for example.
1-Shot Juggernaut: Once during the game, you may choose to become a Juggernaut at night. On this night you will be able to kill someone through any obstacles, and come away unharmed. In particular, this means that any protections on the target will fail, and you will not be killed by Kamikazes or Bodyguards.
Strong Will: You become immune to all roleblocking, regardless of origin. You can never be prevented from taking night actions.
Extra Omnibane: Your Omnibane has been upgraded to a 2-Shot, protecting you from 2 kills over the course of the game. Its other functionality remains unchanged.

And it would be highly likely that we have a SK based on this:

The second number generated is checked against the Serial Killer threshold specific to the result that was rolled by the first. If the 12th number exceeds the threshold, add a Serial Killer.

Which would mean that if we got 8 picks, the threshold for the SK is 160, garnering a 20% of it appearing. 10 picks, 100 is the threshold. And 11 picks, 150 would be the threshold. So therefore we would be guaranteed that if we have a SK, that would be dealing with either a Tier 3 or a Tier 4 SK at this point in the game. BUT only if the theory of Manti being the Seer and Choof being a Wolf Seer holds up. Which means that our picks would relay between 8, 10 and 11.

IF Manti was a Tracker, this would hold up on the Choof + Yoshl claim of being Full Seer and 1-shot Seer respectfully.

IF Manti isn't either a Tracker or a Seer, then this would put either Choof's or Yoshl's claim in question (unless Tokzic is ??? Still need to compile on this theory a bit more)

Anyhow, this game would indeed revolve around the Choof + Yoshl claim and Manti's death in my opinion as the whole thing sounds ??? to me.

I'll post more as I go through this but for now I'll shut up oops...

[choof]

Re: TWG 130: Hi-Roller's C9++ GAME THREAD

we have an sk, there should be zero doubt now that we know rb was vig

[choof]

Re: TWG 130: Hi-Roller's C9++ GAME THREAD

yoshl's claim is legit imo because he cleared you and kayla was able to verify it by masonry

[James May]

Re: TWG 130: Hi-Roller's C9++ GAME THREAD

we have an sk, there should be zero doubt now that we know rb was vig

The question is though if the SK we're dealing with is either a tier 3 or a Tier 4. I'm leaning towards 4 but you'll never know.