The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

[gold stinger]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

(1:2500).

I'm going to do a graph of how you're using random.org to determine outcomes.

[rushyrulz]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

ok have fun. It's always fun to have the participants figure it out rather than just outright saying the probabilities anyway.

[Sniper12345S]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

Man, I haven't been good at keeping up with the AAAdvent. Anyways. Merry Christmas to you all.

[gold stinger]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

well if you want to post the odds yourself that would be nice too.

[VisD]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

It's probably just (1/50)^2

In fact, it could be kind of entertaining to figure out what the odds of each outcome are with regards to token winnings. There's probably a large enough set of data in this thread to get a good idea...(but i'm too lazy to do it oops)

[Deadlyx39]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

Honestly do the odds really matter? It's free. Free to all who worship our one and true lord in the Great Synthlight.

[gold stinger]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

I believe in science not god zing

[rushyrulz]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

Man, I haven't been good at keeping up with the AAAdvent. Anyways. Merry Christmas to you all.

well the problem is you keep posting in the thread instead of PMing the events account. Already sent you a PM explaining what to do :/

[noname219]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

Too lazy to count but it's probably something like :
500 : 12/25
1,000 : 6/25
5,000 : 4/25
10,000 : 2/25
50,000 : 1/25
-
Token (additional roll) : 1/100

edit : forgot that the token was another roll

[ItsOnlyDanO]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

1000 again

back to the shit it seems

[noname219]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

There's probably a large enough set of data in this thread to get a good idea...(but i'm too lazy to do it oops)

After counting, here's the probabilities :
Token : 18/846 ≈ 1/50
50,000 : 9/224 ≈ 1/25 (but I'm guessing it's probably 1/50 instead)
25,000 : 6/224 ≈ 1/37.3
10,000 : 10/224 ≈ 1/22.4
5,000 : 18/224 ≈ 1/12.5
1,000 : 84/224 ≈ 1/2.6
500 : 97/224 ≈ 1/2.3

Mine is 500/1000/500/500/1000/500/5000/1000

[foxfire667]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

Ooh look at all the guesses about the prize probability! I'm glad I decided against posting it alongside the OP, not knowing for sure makes winning all the more entertaining.

Considering the vast number of submissions I'm genuinely curious as to how the actual values will correlate to the probabilities. I think when this is all over putting together a whole bunch of stats will be quite interesting to look at.

Edit: Holy hell I rolled a token! I never roll those!

[Deidara837]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

500 - 500 - 25000 - 500 - 1000 - 500 - 1000 - 500

(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻)

[klimtkiller]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

no token yet. i've never been a lucky guy.

[justin_ator]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

500 - 500 - 25000 - 500 - 1000 - 500 - 1000 - 500

(╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻)

500-500-1000-500-500-500-500-1000

\(-_-)/ ...