The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

[MikeShinoda12345]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

i've lost a net 425k in the gambling hall
i'm not going anywhere near that place again

[benny58624]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

Are you just taking any old wager or making any old bet? Believe it or not there is a method to getting fairly consistent gains from the gambling hall, barring some unholy awful luck.

Basically as you win more you have a greater chance of losing and vice-versa. So what you want to do essentially is bet less or take a smaller wager when you win, and do the opposite when you lose. The more times you lose, the higher your next bet or wager taken should be, and the opposite for winning.

Are you trolling or don't you know this?

The site doesn't use your previous wins/loses to calculate your winning chance (right?) So each time you have a 50% chance at winning.
Example: if you rolled a 6 on a dice five times in a row, what is the chance that you will roll a 6 again next roll? The chance is still 1/6 because the dice doesn't remember your previous rolls.
More info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

[rushyrulz]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

Are you trolling or don't you know this?

The site doesn't use your previous wins/loses to calculate your winning chance (right?) So each time you have a 50% chance at winning.
Example: if you rolled a 6 on a dice five times in a row, what is the chance that you will roll a 6 again next roll? The chance is still 1/6 because the dice doesn't remember your previous rolls.
More info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Expected Value and YOU

^^

[ItsOnlyDanO]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

probability people

probability

[blindreper1179]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

gambling is dumb, you're all dumb, stop having problems with gambling.

[foxfire667]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

The singular chance of winning is always 50%, but the chance of winning (or losing) a certain amount of times will always be smaller than the singular chance. The chance of winning a set number of times in this case will always be 1/2^n, where n is the number of win or loss times.

Though this is hardly just talk however, take a look at my credit winnings from the gambling hall (keep in mind that these are hundreds upon hundreds of bets, not just a few, and that a lot of it came from the past couple days after changing my baseline to 1k instead of 50 credits):

[Funnygurl555]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

this thread made me start using the gambling hall

[j-rodd123]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

gambling is fun and i encourage it

[MarcusHawkins]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

The singular chance of winning is always 50%, but the chance of winning (or losing) a certain amount of times will always be smaller than the singular chance. The chance of winning a set number of times in this case will always be 1/2^n, where n is the number of win or loss times.

Though this is hardly just talk however, take a look at my credit winnings from the gambling hall (keep in mind that these are hundreds upon hundreds of bets, not just a few, and that a lot of it came from the past couple days after changing my baseline to 1k instead of 50 credits):

What's your Best Win Streak, and your Worst Lose Streak?

[tosh]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

Though this is hardly just talk however, take a look at my credit winnings from the gambling hall (keep in mind that these are hundreds upon hundreds of bets, not just a few, and that a lot of it came from the past couple days after changing my baseline to 1k instead of 50 credits):

I used a similar system to you and lost quite a bit. You have to remember that someone loses a credit for each credit that you win. So while you're up 300k, that means that the rest of FFR collectively is down 300k from those particular bets.


I routinely had 6-7 bet losing streaks. That and combined with the fact that I was 0/13 on bets 100k and higher helps contribute to that net loss.

Your system is a good way to realize short-term gains, but over the long-term it will even out to zero.

[rushyrulz]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

FFR eats 2% of whatever goes through the gambling hall, so someone loses a credit for each .98 credit that you win.

That's how we pay server costs.

[benny58624]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

The singular chance of winning is always 50%, but the chance of winning (or losing) a certain amount of times will always be smaller than the singular chance. The chance of winning a set number of times in this case will always be 1/2^n, where n is the number of win or loss times.

This is true. The chance that your next 5 bets will be a win streak is 1/32. But i'm talking about conditional probabilitys: what is the chance you will win if you are already on a 4 win streak? The answer is 1/2.

[foxfire667]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

What's your Best Win Streak, and your Worst Lose Streak?

Best win streak: 9
Worst lose streak: 9

Also yeah if you take a larger risk you can crash and burn real hard. It's not a perfect method, it's just one that generally works quite well.

EDIT: Over the past few minutes I've taken several more bets...
Credits Won: 618498
Credits Lost: 306450

Noticing a trend?

[MarcusHawkins]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

If you have the credits, and use the win streaks to your advantage though, I think that profits are almost a guarantee!! (9 is a good number to look at imo)

[foxfire667]

Re: The FFR AAAdvent Calendar

If you have the credits, and use the win streaks to your advantage though, I think that profits are almost a guarantee!! (9 is a good number to look at imo)

How exactly would I use a winning streak to my advantage though? There's no way I could know exactly how many times I am going to win. All I know is that as I win more, the chance of winning a set of n+1 is 1/2^n+1, which doesn't seem appealing to me.